The Eisenthal Report

2008 Year End

TER has been an on and off concern - mostly off - during 2008.

Without doubt, this has been a momentous year all around.

The course of our country and the world has been changed by the global financial crisis, which is in fact a housing crisis. Fortunately, this country chose wisely in electing calmly competent junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, as President of the United States. If anyone can provide the leadership needed to get us through the next four years, it is the soon-to-be President Obama.

In Massachusetts, we face a steadily worsening fiscal picture. Governor Patrick announced state budget cuts that may now include mid-year local aid reductions. The next couple of years will be tough.

Much has changed for me personally, including the fact that I will be dealing with the effects of state finances on local governments as a Selectman in the Town of West Brookfield. The reality of this new role also struck home in much lighter fashion this afternoon. At the local liquor store, I looked up at the wall and saw my signature stating at me from the store's brand new 2009 liquor license. I thought "this is for real."

What is also for real is all of the assistance and good wishes my family received when my wife got her kidney transplant. Her operation was on January 10, 2008; she's doing great. We are all very thankful.

And so I wish you all a Happy New Year - one that is safe, secure, and happy.

Zawahiri's Macaca Moment

Al-Qaeda, in the person of #2 man Ayman al-Zawahiri, has broken its silence on the United States Presidential election. In 2004, Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden made a notorious statement in advance of the voting between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. That statement is thought to perhaps have pushed the election in Bush's favor. This time, al-Qaeda waited until after election to make its statement - and with this statement may have committed a major strategic error - one that in time might be known as Zawahiri's Macaca Moment.

Among other things, Zawahiri - who is himself Egyptian - referred to President-Elect Barack Obama by a term that was translated into English as "house Negro" or "house slave." While this observer is not knowledgeable in Arabic, I am willing to venture that the true connotation of this phrase is more like "house ni**er."

Experts say that one of al-Qaeda's goals is to provoke conflict between the West and Islamic world. Calling the incoming President of the United States a "ni**er" is certainly provocative, but perhaps not in the way that Zawahiri might want it to be. It is obvious that many Muslims of African descent around the world - in Africa, in America, and elsewhere - have a special place in their hearts for President-Elect Obama. I cannot imagine that Zawahiri's statements will play well in African nations with large Muslim populations such as Senegal, or Burkina Faso, or Nigeria, or Kenya for that matter - where the nation just celebrated a national holiday to honor a son of Kenya on his ascension to the most powerful office in the world.

In his "holy" war, Zawahiri may just have kissed away major possible sources of support.

In this way, Zawahiri may resemble the perpetrator of the original Macaca Moment - former Virginia Sen. George Allen. During the 2006 campaign, Allen was holding a lead in a race with former Navy Secretary James Webb until Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker named S.R. Sidarth, who was videotaping Allen at a campaign event. Sidarth is a native of Virginia who happens to be the son of Indian immigrants. Allen referred to Sidarth as "Macaca," which is a type of monkey.

Allen never recovered from the effects of this insult - Jim Webb went on to defeat Allen.

The point here is that terrorists - like other practitioners of power politics - need to win hearts and minds. I don't think Ayman al-Zawahiri was too successful this time. We can hope that this will be his Macaca Moment.

Looking Back at this Election - and Beyond

As someone who started supporting Barack Obama's Presidential candidacy in 2007, I am naturally delighted with the results in the Presidential election.

The President-Elect may end up with 365 electoral votes out of 538 - all of the states won by John Kerry four years ago, plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Indiana - and the single electoral vote of Nebraska's second congressional district (Omaha and environs) - if Nate Silver is correct.

Looking at a map of this country, it is breathtaking to consider a driver starting at the northern end of Interstate 95 in Houlton, Maine; that driver would need to drive more than 1,200 miles south on I-95 to enter a state - South Carolina - that Barack Obama did not carry on Tuesday. That same driver, turning west onto Interstate 80 west of New York, would need to drive 1,200 miles west from New York to enter a state - Nebraska - not carried by Obama.

Beyond the Presidential election are the Senate seats picked up by Democrats in Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire - and the many House seats picked up across the country.

Tuesday night had the feel of non-stop victory for those of us who have been through many disappointing election nights. In fact, in some ways, Tuesday felt like the mirror image for me of the 1980 election.

In that earlier election, a charismatic and attractive candidate - Ronald Reagan - led his party to an overwhelming victory in the Presidential and Congressional elections - just as Barack Obama was doing Tuesday. I remember one incumbent Democratic Senator after another falling to defeat that night in 1980. There was even a tax cutting measure on the Massachusetts ballot that year - the law now known as Proposition 2 1/2, which passed, unlike 2008's Question 1, which would have eliminated the state's income tax.

I remember feeling disappointed and horrified at the scale of the victories of President Reagan and Congressional Republicans - much as I know that my more conservative friends are disappointed and fearful at the size of Tuesday's triumph for the Democrats.

Something to remember that is sobering for us Democrats - and perhaps reassuring for the conservatives - is that actions produce reactions. The scale of the policy issues facing the new President and Congress are such that a decisive majority may be difficult to sustain over the next 2, 4, and 6 years. 1982 and 1986 were good years for the Democrats. Even if President Obama and the Congress are successful in addressing the wide range of policies that they need to, they may face good Republican years in 2010 and 2014 - and maybe even in 2012.

The new President has my admiration, best hopes, and best wishes. He will need all of the support he can get to be the strong leader that I believe he can be. The hard part now begins for him.

President-Elect Barack Obama

At 11:00 PM Eastern Time tonight, November 4, 2008, MSNBC projected that Barack Obama would win the states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. With the 77 electoral votes from these states added to the 207 already projected to be won by Obama, MSNBC has projected that Barack Obama has been elected President of the United States.

Election Night 2008 - 10:00 Eastern

At 10:00 Eastern, MSNBC called Iowa for Obama and Utah for McCain. Earlier, MSNBC called Texas for McCain. At this point, Obama has 207 electoral votes, 63 short of victory. With victories in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii, Obama would have 77 additional electoral votes for a total of 284 - 14 more than needed for victory.

Tom Udall earlier won New Mexico bringing Democratic Senate pickups to four.

Ohio Called for Obama!

MSNBC called Ohio for Barack Obama at 9:20 Eastern this evening. Assuming that Obama wins the remaining Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, Barack Obama will have a minimum of 284 electoral votes - 14 more than needed for victory. Barack Obama will be the President-Elect of the United States.

Election Night 2008 - 9:00 Eastern

At 9:00, MSNBC called New York, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan for Obama, and Kansas, North Dakota, and Wyoming for McCain. With Alabama and Georgia going for McCain, the Electoral College stands at 175 for Obama and 70 for McCain.

Earlier, Kay Hagan was projected the winner of the Senate race in North Carolina over Elizabeth Dole. Democratic pickups are up to three. Alabama and Georgia were called for McCain. In Massachusetts, John Kerry won re-election to the Senate, John Olver won re-election to the House, and Question 1, which would have eliminated the state income tax, failed.

Election Night 2008 - 8:00 Eastern

MSNBC called South Carolina shortly before the hour, but with the 8:00 poll closings, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania have been called for Obama, and Oklahoma and Tennessee have been called for McCain. We stand now at 103 electoral votes for Obama and 34 for McCain.

The most significant result here is Pennsylvania, which was part of McCain's long shot strategy for victory. If McCain retains any hope of victory at this point, it has dramatically narrowed.

The New Hampshire Senate race has been called for Jeanne Shaheen. The Democrats are up to two pickups.

Election Night 2008 - 7:00 Eastern

CNN and MSNBC have called Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for McCain. McCain leads 8 to 3 at the moment. Indiana is too close to call. MSNBC has also called Mark Warner the winner of the Senate in Virginia. No surprises so far.

Election Night 2008

The Eisenthal Report is coming to you tonight from the residence of Blair and Mark Stephens, known in West Brookfield as the "hosts with the most."

Here, an election night crowd, mostly supporters of Sen. Barack Obama and other Democrats down-ticket, awaits the first results with anticipation and no little nervousness.

If the polls are accurate, Barack Obama should be on course to become the 44th President of the United States. Democrats should also be poised to make major gains in both the U.S. House and Senate.

Within the hour, polls will close in Indiana, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The latter two states are nearly sure bets to be picked up by Sen. John McCain, but Indiana has been in furious contention. An early call of Indiana for Sen. Obama might signal the beginning of a huge night for the Democrats.

Election Day Predictions

Total Popular Vote: 141,000,000
Obama: 75,000,000 (largest in U.S. History)
McCain: 65,000,000 (second largest)
Obama Electoral Votes: 338*
McCain Electoral Votes: 200*

New Senators - all Democrats - Merkley (OR), Begich (AK), Udall (CO), Udall (NM), Franken (MN), Hagan (NC), Warner (VA), and Shaheen (NH).

*When the Electoral College votes next month, we may see a number of faithless electors. My guess is one for Biden for President and as many as three for Palin for President.

Where we stand in the Presidential Election

With two days left before Election Day, it remains clear that barring an historic upset, Barack Obama will be elected President of the United States on Tuesday.

The scale of an upset that would put John McCain in the White House is apparent by a look at the state-by-state polling numbers. According to Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections, McCain currently leads in 19 states with 160 electoral votes. There are five states - North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina - with 60 electoral votes that are considered to be tossups. There are another five states with 75 electoral votes where Barack Obama's lead is less than 10 percentage points - Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida.

In order for McCain to win on Tuesday, he would need to -

1)   Hold on to all of the states where he currently leads, and
2)   Win all of the tossup states, and
3)   Win 50 out of the 75 electoral votes where Obama leads by less than 10 percent, or
4)    Find some electoral votes in the states where Obama leads by more than 10 percent.

Assuming that #1 and #2 happen and that #4 does not, Florida - with 27 electoral votes - is an absolute must-win state for McCain. Pennsylvania - with 21 electoral votes - is an almost must-win. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he would win the Electoral College with any one of Colorado, Virginia, or Florida. Obama and McCain would be tied in the Electoral College with Obama victories in Pennsylvania and Nevada (and McCain wins in the other three). Given the likely Democratic dominance of the next Congress, Obama would probably win an election in the House of Representatives.

If McCain wins Florida and Pennsylvania, he would still need to win one of Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia in order to win. (All the while winning all of the tossup states.) It is not inconceivable that this could happen, but it would very well fit the definition of the term "historic upset."

On Tuesday evening, the first state that might be projected is Virginia, where the polls close at 7PM EST. If Obama is projected to win there, it will be almost over for McCain. If Obama is then projected to win in Pennsylvania, where the polls close at 8PM EST, a McCain victory becomes virtually inconceivable.

75,000,000

This is the amount of popular votes I believe Barack Obama will receive - within 500,000 - after all votes are cast. What do you think?

2008 - Not Your Father's Election

The fact that the 2008 Presidential election looks like no other Presidential election in United States history is almost a commonplace.

Next Tuesday, the United States is likely to elect its first African-American President - and its first Roman Catholic Vice President. If this happens, it will be based in large part of unprecedented participation by people of color and young people. Even if the McCain-Palin ticket wins - and this would be the biggest Presidential election upset since 1948 - there will be history made.

The simple fact is that - based on the polling numbers nationally and state-by-state - this Presidential election looks like no other. This reflects the current economic crisis, but also more fundamental changes in this country's politics.

The recent election that might be most similar to this year in popular vote totals, based on national tracking polls, might be 1988, when George H.W. Bush received 53 percent of the popular vote to Michael Dukakis' 46 percent. While the Obama-McCain race might also have a 53-46 margin, the votes will be distributed very differently from state to state as compared to 1988. (See Dave Leip's Atlas.)

In 1988, 21 states - with 271 electoral votes (one more than needed for election) - were decided by less than a ten percent margin. These included California (51%-48% for Bush), New York (52%-48% for Dukakis), Illinois (51%-49% for Bush), and Massachusetts (53%-45% for Dukakis). The implication here is that if the national popular vote margin had been closer than 7 percent, Dukakis' electoral vote totals would have been substantially higher than the 111 electoral votes that he received.

This year, based on the latest state-by-state polls, there are 15 states that look to have less than a 10 percent margin. These states collectively have 159 electoral votes. This means that 379 electoral votes could be decided in relatively lopsided state contests. Of the lopsided contests, Obama is leading in states with 247 electoral votes and McCain is leading in states with 132 electoral votes. These include California, where Obama is leading by more than 20 percent, and New York, where Obama is leading by more than 30 percent.

What this shows is a far more geographically polarized electorate now than 20 years ago. The liberal parts of this country are more liberal and the conservative parts are more conservative - with some exceptions. Parts of the Mountain West and the South are more competitive in Presidential elections.

It is this geographic polarization that gives John McCain a sliver of hope on Tuesday. Even if Barack Obama runs up his popular vote percentage to 53 or 55 percent of the total, McCain will still win an almost guaranteed 150 electoral votes. Close contests in key states could push McCain within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Were voting patterns more like 1988, a popular vote percentage of 53 percent for Obama would guarantee a substantial victory in the electoral college - like George H.W. Bush's 426 electoral votes to Michael Dukakis' 111. At this point, even if Barack Obama wins 55 percent of popular vote (something that no one has done since Ronald Reagan), he is very unlikely to win more than 390 electoral votes. Something narrower than a 53-47 popular vote margin nationally could make the electoral college contest more interesting than this observer would like to see.

A Curious Deployment of Campaign Resources

This morning, I saw one reason why the Presidential campaign of Republican nominee John McCain may be headed for a spectacular defeat.

I was getting on the Massachusetts Turnpike (I-90) at Exit 7 in Ludlow. For those of you not intimately familiar with Massachusetts geography, Ludlow is in western Massachusetts next to Springfield - about 50 miles east of the New York state line and 80 miles west of Boston.

At Exit 7, on the four corners surrounding the interchange, I saw perhaps a dozen McCain-Palin volunteers holding signs. Now, the next battleground state going west on I-90 from Ludlow is Ohio - some 500 miles to the west. Going east, there is the battleground state of New Hampshire, but I'm not sure how many Granite Staters we would find in Ludlow on a Saturday morning. Apart from New Hampshire, all there is going east from Ludlow is pure blue - up to and including the sea.

This seemed to me to be a pretty blatant misapplication of campaign resources ten days before the election. (They couldn't have gotten into a minivan and gone to New Hampshire?)

If we see a substantial Obama victory - or even a landslide - on November 4, this kind of mistake may be one of the reasons.

McCain's Hubris

The campaign of Republican Presidential nominee John McCain has seized on remarks that Joseph Biden, the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, made last week. At a Seattle fundraiser, Biden said that "it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama...we're going to have an international crisis to test the mettle of this guy." The McCain campaign has been running an ad attempting to show that these remarks highlight Obama's foreign policy inexperience. For this observer, the McCain campaign's claim demonstrates a frightening hubris. The next President - whether it is Obama or McCain - will be tested by multiple crises. To think that that the mercurial McCain, who will turn 73 next August, will be a steadier hand in the crises of the next four years is highly questionable at best. Barack Obama (endorsed by TER) has shown himself to be a calm presence, even in the cauldron of three debates with McCain. This observer is far more comfortable with the steadiness and intelligence of Barack Obama at the helm during the coming crises, domestic and foreign, than the uncertain temperament and health of John McCain.

Has McCain Conceded the Presidency?

Electoral-vote.com observed today that Republican Presidential nominee John McCain and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin have been traveling to states like Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire - states that the Republican ticket is very unlikely to win at this point -and not traveling to Nevada and North Carolina - states that are within reach for the Republicans, but in danger of going to Obama.

It seems to this observer that two things are going on with the McCain-Palin campaign. First, the Republican ticket has all but conceded the Presidency to Barack Obama. The ticket is treading water - standing by in the hope that Obama makes a fatal stumble at this late stage. Second, having essentially conceded the White House to Obama and Biden, the GOP wants to limit as much as possible Obama's ability to govern effectively. They are trying to do this by limiting Obama's margin in the popular vote. This would explain the continued negative attacks - wherever they are made. McCain and Palin may also focused on limiting the damage to Republicans in down-ticket races. Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have vigorously contested U.S. Senate contests for seats currently held by Republicans. In Minnesota and New Hampshire, particularly, the Democrats have good chances of winning the Senate seats. McCain and Palin, then would seem to be acting partly on behalf of Senators like Norm Coleman and John Sununu as they try to stem what appears to be a Democratic tide.

Just How Old is John McCain?

A couple of years ago, when Gerald Ford became the longest-living former President, The Eisenthal Report tried to put President Ford's longevity into perspective. TER noted that if Abraham Lincoln lived as long as Ford, he would have lived into the 20th century, and if Theodore Roosevelt had lived as long as Ford, he would have been around for the Korean War.

One can perform a similar exercise for the current Republican nominee for President, Arizona Senator John McCain, who at age 72 would be the oldest person ever elected to the office. Thomas Dewey, the Republican nominee for President in 1944 and 1948 achieved and - unfortunately - died young. He was only 68 when he died in 1971. Thus, Dewey would have reached McCain's current age in 1974. It is actually not a terribly absurd thought that a living and healthy Dewey might have become President at that point. Perhaps Richard Nixon might have selected Dewey as his Vice President when Spiro Agnew resigned in 1973 - and in this fanciful scenario, Dewey would have become President in 1974 when Nixon himself resigned.

Lyndon Johnson, the 36th President of the United States, also died young - at 64 in 1973. He would have reached McCain's current age in 1980. Of course, the nation did elect a senior citizen that year - Ronald Reagan at the age of 69.

John F. Kennedy would have reached McCain's current age in 1989 - an illustration if any is needed of what this country lost with Kennedy's murder.

The point of this is that we, as Americans, should be pleased that someone of McCain's experience is available to be a potential President - even if we do not choose - as I will not - to put him to work as President.

A Random Thought on Stock Markets and Elections

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average having dipped below 8,000 today (a little before 2:00 PM EDT), a question occurs to me.

What if the 1929 stock market crash had happened one year earlier - in October 1928? Would we have had President Alfred Smith instead of President Herbert Hoover?

Second Presidential Debate

Tonight's Presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee, had great importance for both Sen. Barack Obama (endorsed by TER) and Sen. John McCain, but more was at stake for Sen. McCain, who has been falling steadily behind Sen. Obama in national and state-by-state polls over the past few weeks.

While McCain scored some points, this was far from the victory that he needed. He will not have many more opportunities to make up the ground that he did not tonight.

If there is a major change in campaign dynamic, it likely will not come from the remaining debate - or from the candidates themselves. Such a change, if it is to come, will much more likely come from an external event. It could be argued that the dynamic changing event has already happened - the global financial meltdown.

Looking at debates historically, those debates that did have a significant effect are now increasingly distantly in the past. One can think of the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debates, the 1976 Ford-Carter debates, and the 1980 Carter-Reagan debates as having changed the direction of those elections. Part of the reason we have not seen such trajectory-changing debates recently is the advent of the 24-hour news cycle and the role of the Internet. Voters have a greater and more constant volume of information available - it's harder for any particular debate or campaign event to have the kind of important effect that the 1960, 1976, and 1980 debates had.

It is thus perhaps unreasonable to expect much change from the remaining debate, which will be held a week from tomorrow at Hofstra University.