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Main | Yet another opinion on Social Security »

February 04, 2005

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dick ginnold

Good site. Your comments on SS are
thoughtful. Why do you accept the SS Trustees intermediate projection? I have
been studying SS and the numbers for the
last few months. I am appalled at the loose
and unsupported policy line George Bush has
been voicing.
I am equally concerned that
independent voices(yours included) have not
dug into the basis for the intermediate
projection. Just a few points--US growth is
estimated at 1.6% over the long term,
compared to our average in the high 3s for
the last 30-40 years. This is a necessary
result of estimated severe reduction in
fertility rates(even though they are rising
now and above the Intermed est); several
hundred thou reduction in immigration nos.(
even though nos are increasing, legal and
illegal, and pressures are rising; major
reduction in productivity growth to 1.6%(what is basis?);and rapid unilinear reduction in death rates, though they have
been fairly flat in recent years(not just med-tech, but social limits). Low cost
estimate means present OASDI tax adequate for foreseeable future.
David Langer compares estimates from l990-2002 and finds actual SS spending follows Low Cost path. High and Intermediate are 10-20% too high.
Real problem are hugh SS surpluses building up and being spent by Bush for tax
cuts, military spending and not to reduce
other debt. First 4 years unspent SS taxes was $650 billion piggy bank, spent for above. Another $1 trillion this 4 years.
Finally, Medicare spending and entire health
issue, no action. Hope this resonates with
you. Like the intelligence of your site.
Dick Ginnold, Eugene, Oregon

dick ginnold

Good site. Your comments on SS are
thoughtful. Why do you accept the SS Trustees intermediate projection? I have
been studying SS and the numbers for the
last few months. I am appalled at the loose
and unsupported policy line George Bush has
been voicing.
I am equally concerned that
independent voices(yours included) have not
dug into the basis for the intermediate
projection. Just a few points--US growth is
estimated at 1.6% over the long term,
compared to our average in the high 3s for
the last 30-40 years. This is a necessary
result of estimated severe reduction in
fertility rates(even though they are rising
now and above the Intermed est); several
hundred thou reduction in immigration nos.(
even though nos are increasing, legal and
illegal, and pressures are rising; major
reduction in productivity growth to 1.6%(what is basis?);and rapid unilinear reduction in death rates, though they have
been fairly flat in recent years(not just med-tech, but social limits). Low cost
estimate means present OASDI tax adequate for foreseeable future.
David Langer compares estimates from l990-2002 and finds actual SS spending follows Low Cost path. High and Intermediate are 10-20% too high.
Real problem are hugh SS surpluses building up and being spent by Bush for tax
cuts, military spending and not to reduce
other debt. First 4 years unspent SS taxes was $650 billion piggy bank, spent for above. Another $1 trillion this 4 years.
Finally, Medicare spending and entire health
issue, no action. Hope this resonates with
you. Like the intelligence of your site.
Dick Ginnold, Eugene, Oregon

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