The Eisenthal Report

Bush Strategy in Iraq

As has been widely reported, President Bush delivered a major policy speech on Iraq at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. Accompanying this speech was the release of a 35 page document called National Strategy For Victory in Iraq, which was prepared by the National Security Council. There are positive things about the speech and the Strategy, but they leave severe doubts about our path in Iraq.

A first reaction to the speech and the accompanying Strategy is that they - or something like them - should have released on the day that President Bush landed on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003. If not then, certainly by the end of that year, the President should have been ready with a plan - and able to communicate it effectively to the American people.

The Strategy itself is very clearly presented and makes some good points.  It discusses the vital US interest in the outcomes in Iraq as well as the consequences of failing to secure a stable peace there. Iraq will become a terrorist haven - even more than it is now - if we do not allow the Iraqi government to gain stable control over the country. Our credibility with our allies and adversaries will be even more seriously damaged than it has been over the past two and a half years. The Strategy also analyzes who our adversaries are, dividing them into "Rejectionists," "Saddamists," and "Al-Qaedaists." It makes "divide and conquer" a key element - a good approach if it can be carried through.

The path to "victory" laid out by the Strategy has three basic tracks: political, security, and economic. The political track would

isolate enemy elements from those who can be won over to the political process...engage those outside the political process...and build stable, pluralistic, and effective national institutions.

The security track would

clear areas of enemy control by remaining on the offensive...hold areas freed from enemy influence by ensuring that they remain under the control of the Iraqi government, and build Iraqi Security Forces and the capacity of local institutions to deliver services, advance the rule of law, and nurture civil society.

The economic track would

restore Iraq's infrastructure...reform Iraq's economy...and build the capacity of Iraqi institutions to maintain infrastructure, rejoin the international economic community, and improve the general welfare of all Iraqis.

The economic track is the least problematic or controversial aspect of the Strategy, but its implementation really depends on the success of the first two tracks.

One major concern about the political track is whether there is sufficient leadership - civilian and military - and local knowledge "on the ground" in Iraq to be effective in isolating the enemy and engaging those outside the political process. Can we be confident that the boots on the ground can make these distinctions well enough to be effective in this regard? The jury is out on this.

The concern about the security track is that we have been on the offensive now for more than two years - and do not yet have much to show for it. Other approaches to the military campaign, such as the "oil spot" strategy or standing down our offensive operations and bringing in Islamic peacekeepers deserve more thought and discussion.

President Bush's speech and the NSC Strategy for Iraq have the virtue of clarity - something missing up to now from the Administration's approach with the American people and the world - unless one takes obstinance as clarity. However, it is doubtful that the strategy so outlined today will work any better than that which has proceeded for the past two years.

Economic Growth and the Federal Budget

The US Department of Commerce today released third-quarter figures for the Gross Domestic Product. The GDP grew by an annualized rate of 4.3%, far faster than expected - particularly given Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

It will be worth watching the effect of this stronger growth on the federal deficit. As noted here in October, the fiscal 2005 deficit (year ending September 30, 2005) was $319 billion - better than earlier expected. While the 4.3 percent annualized growth is stronger than expected, it still falls short of Bush Administration assumptions (see page 191) regarding economic growth that support their goal of cutting the deficit in half by 2010.

Tim Murray's Plans

Beyond 495 has come across an indication that Worcester Mayor Tim Murray intends to run for Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts. (HT: Blue Mass Group). Apparently, a holiday party invitation notes that Murray plans to be present at the event in his capacity as a candidate for the number two job on Beacon Hill.

Rumors have been flying for months about Murray's intentions, as TER noted in an August 2005 comment. These rumors remained unsubstantiated while Murray campaigned for re-election as Mayor (and City Councillor). Now that he is safely re-elected in Worcester, it is clear that Murray will be at least "testing the waters" for the Lieutenant Governor's office. I agree with the conventional wisdom that Murray would be the front-runner in this race because of his regional base and resources.

Canada: Martin Government Falls

The Canadian Government of Prime Minister Paul Martin has been ousted in a no-confidence vote. As a result, Martin will seek to dissolve Parliament today and to set a date for new national elections - likely to be January 16 or 23, according to the BBC.

Martin's government has been dogged by a corruption scandal. Previous governments of the Liberal Party had paid C$100 million to advertising agencies to produce advertising designed to boost national identity in the wake of a secession vote that narrowly failed in the Province of Québec ten years ago. It is alleged that little advertising work actually occurred and that much of the money was instead paid to Liberal party politicians in the form of kickbacks.

Prime Minister Martin's government had survived an earlier no-confidence vote with the support of the New Democratic party. In yesterday's vote, the New Democrats broke with the government over health care spending.

The upcoming campaign will be the first time in 26 years that Canadians will go to the polls in the winter. One can expect that absentee voting will be at its briskest from Canada's honorary 11th province - Florida.  May they avoid hanging chads.

Massachusetts Special Legislative Elections

Blue Mass. Group has a good roundup of three special elections for seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives within the next few months. The primaries for all three are on January 10 and the generals are on February 7. The seats are the 27th Middlesex, formerly held by Sen. Pat Jehlen (D - Somerville), who won a special election for the state Senate seat vacated by the death of former Sen. Charles Shannon; the Second Worcester, formerly held by Rep. Brian Knuuttila, who resigned to become Counsel to Worcester County Sheriff (and former Senator) Guy Glodis; and the First Bristol, formerly held by Rep. Michael Coppola, who died last year.

As BMG points out, these are very different districts. The 27th Middlesex is urban - entirely within the City of Somerville, and is considered to be a safe Democratic and progressive seat. The Second Worcester is exurban - centered on the City of Gardner; whether it elects a Democrat or a Republican, that legislator is likely to be relatively right-leaning - at least in the context of the Massachusetts House. The First Bristol is suburban - centered on the Town of Foxborough. It tends to elect moderate Republicans, but could go Democratic given an attractive candidate.

A Third Way in Iraq

Lorelei Kelly has an interesting post today at Democracy Arsenal. This post considers the potential effect of Congressman John Murtha's call last week for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq. According to Kelly,

The most important outcome of his statements...is that he's disturbed the silent and/or mumbling inertia in Congress.  Now we might see some actual democratic deliberation and debate about options.  Is it still possible to leave responsibly, given the increasingly strident politics?

Kelly then goes on to consider whether a third way in Iraq - as opposed to either leaving immediately or slogging on ahead - is practicable. She quotes from Stephen Zunes, who proposes a six-pronged approach to proceeding in Iraq that would

1) immediately end offensive military operations by U.S. forces;  2) renounce any long-term military presence in Iraq; 3) enter into negotiations with the more moderate elements of the insurgency; 4) replace U.S. and British forces with peacekeeping forces from Arab and other Islamic countries; 5) fund a generous economic redevelopment package under United Nations supervision; and 6) support a mechanism for strict international human rights monitoring and other means to enhance the credibility of the Iraqi government and its ability to govern effectively.

Kelly also quotes ideas from Sen. Joseph Biden (D - Delaware) and Kathleen Meilhahn for how to proceed.

Kelly does not profess a great deal of optimism about these approaches, asking "is it too late for this?" It seems clear, though, that any thoughtful observer can see that what is happening in Iraq is not now serving this country's interests.

Federal Funding for Pittsfield Project

Today's Berkshire Eagle has a story about $1.85 million in federal funding that will be coming to the City of Pittsfield, Massachusetts - partly because of the efforts of Congressman John W. Olver (D - Amherst).

This funding will be used by the City of Pittsfield to make cosmetic improvements to its downtown.

Three reactions come to mind in considering this story. First, this sounds like a worthy project. Pittsfield is the major urban center in Massachusetts west of Springfield. Its fortunes affect all of Berkshire County as well as some areas beyond. Downtown infrastructure in Pittsfield is important to the economic health of western Massachusetts.

A second reaction is that $1.85 million is not a lot of money - particularly to be getting the kind of media coverage that it is getting. Members of Congress who work within the system on Capitol Hill should be able routinely to secure this kind of federal funding for projects in their districts. For Congressman Olver, who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, it should not be that noteworthy that such federal funding is forthcoming. One would expect even more from a member of Congress with such a strategic committee assignment.

The final thought is that even though the $1.85 million for downtown improvement to Pittsfield is not much compared to the size of the federal budget - $2.57 trillion - such projects spread across 435 congressional districts and 50 states begin to add up to serious money. It is proper to ask whether the federal government should be providing such funding at a time when it is running a deficit of more than $300 billion. It was another Massachusetts politician - Calvin Coolidge - who said that there is nothing easier than spending other people's money.  Given the truth of that statement, projects like the Pittsfield project - as worthy as they are - need to be scrutinized thoughtfully and carefully.

Joseph-Guy Ropartz

Today is the fiftieth anniversary of the death of Joseph-Guy Ropartz, who lived from 1864 to 1955. TER has commented previously on this great, but neglected composer. The French are beginning to rediscover Ropartz - a new set of the Ropartz symphonies is in the process of being released on CD. There is also a new biography of Ropartz, written by Mathieu Ferey and Benoit Menut, and published by Editions Papillon of Geneva.

One can hope that with time and effort, this same rediscovery - or discovery - will happen on this side of the Atlantic.

Merkel Elected German Chancellor

More than two months after German voters went to the polls, the German parliament has elected Angela Merkel as Germany's first female Chancellor.

Kenya Constitution

In voting yesterday, Kenyan voters rejected a proposed new constitution by nearly 1 million votes out 6 million cast. The vote is seen as a rebuke to President Mwai Kibaki, who strongly backed the proposed document. The constitution would have created a parliamentary system, although the President would have retained most executive power. It would also have devolved some power from Nairobi to the provinces.

According to the BBC, voting split along ethnic lines as had been previously expected, with Kikuyus - the group to which President Kibaki belongs - largely supporting the constitution and other ethnic groups opposing it.