The Eisenthal Report

2006: Events and Predictions

Events

2006 will, of course, see mid-term elections for 35 Governorships, 33 US Senate seats, and 435 US House seats, as well as most of the state legislatures. Modern Vertebrate has thumbnail summaries of the Governors and Senate races.

The 2006 Winter Olympics will start on February 10 in Turin, Italy.

There are a number of notable milestone anniversaries in the coming year. The tercentennial of the birth of Benjamin Franklin will be on January 17. The 250th anniversary of the birth of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart will be on January 27. The 150th anniversaries of the births of Sigmund Freud and Woodrow Wilson will be this coming year. The centennial of the birth of Russian composer Dmitri Shostakovich will be in September. As mentioned previously here, December will see the centennial of the birth of Oscar Levant.

On a dark note, the coming year will be the 25th anniversary of one assassination and two attempted assassinations: the assassination of Anwar Sadat (October), and the attempts on Ronald Reagan (March) and Pope John Paul II (May).

Predictions

Both houses of Congress are likely to remain under Republican control after the 2006 elections. Gerrymandering has created too many safe seats for the Republicans in the southern and western states for there to be a serious run at the House of Representatives this year. In the US Senate, of the 33 seats that are up, only 15 are currently held by Republicans. The Democrats could gain a few of these seats, but not enough to overcome the current 55 to 45 Republican majority (counting Sen Jim Jeffords (I - Vermont) as a Democrat).

The Republicans will lose some governorships. In particular, they will lose long-held governorships in Massachusetts and New York. In Massachusetts, watch for the contest to be between Independent Christy Mihos and either Tom Reilly or Deval Patrick. In New York, Eliot Spitzer should have little trouble with former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld.

2005 Retrospective

Since its start in February 2005, The Eisenthal Report has addressed a variety of political and cultural issues. This process has been stimulating - and fun. I know that it has left me sharper as a result. I hope that my readers have gotten something out of it as well.

February 2005

At the beginning, I spent time looking at Social Security and President Bush's FY06 budget. I also wrote a piece making the case against Amtrak. I also registered my first post about the situation in Springfield, Massachusetts - something I have commented upon with increasing frequency in recent months. I also began writing about cultural issues that I care about - including two composers who are unjustly neglected: Joseph-Guy Ropartz and Albéric Magnard.

March 2005

Issues that I addressed in March included Cape Wind - the proposed wind farm in Nantucket Sound - as well as diversity at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. I also began to comment on the Concord Coalition's analyses of Social Security. I also began to write about international development issues - particularly those affecting Africa. There were also special primaries held for three vacant Massachusetts state representative districts.

April 2005

In April, the three representative districts held their special general elections. Sen. Charles Shannon (D - Winchester) died on April 5 - setting in motion a campaign for his Senate seat that would result in the election of Sen. Pat Jehlen (D - Somerville). Deval Patrick announced his intention to run for Governor. I also began commenting on health care issues and about the Massachusetts state budget.

May 2005

In May, I continued talking about health care and social security. One of my posts - about comments made by Romney administration official Tim Murphy - got some attention. May was also when Mexican President Vicente Fox made his notorious comments about African-Americans.

June 2005

June saw the shelter funding controversy in Worcester, an exchange with Boston University Professor David Young about Proposition 2 1/2, analysis of the Springfield Finance Control Board, and discussion of comments by Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

July 2005

In July, Massachusetts Gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick gave interviews to a number of bloggers, including TER. I also dealt with racial profiling, more on Springfield, and Worcester's political divide.

August 2005

In August, I made my case for a Presidential line-item veto, as well as for staying in Iraq. TER also addressed the departure of Charles Baker from the race for Massachusetts Governor.

September 2005

September began with TER - and me - being profiled in the Valley Advocate. TER also commented on an interview of outgoing Massachusetts Administration and Finance Secretary Eric Kriss - "Bizarre and Out of Touch" - which resulted in my being compared to The Incredible Hulk. I also discussed the impacts of Hurricane Katrina.

October 2005

In October, I discussed the Bush "Hackocracy," democracy in Africa, and the proposed sale of Boston-area classical music station WCRB. (The latter post got some attention, though not much comment. There were a good number of visits to this post from WCRB.com.) There was also an exchange with Dr. Barry Bluestone about a presentation he made to the Massachusetts Municipal Association about state aid to local governments in Massachusetts.

November 2005

In November, there was more about the Massachusetts Governor's race. There was also discussion of new special legislative elections in Massachusetts, of a "third way" in Iraq, and of the royalties received by descendants of the composer Jean Sibelius.

December 2005

This past month has been quite active. There was, of course, the BlogLeft gathering in Worcester - the first of hopefully many blogger gatherings here. There was also a rumor about Massachusetts Gubernatorial candidate Tom Reilly selecting Chris Gabrieli as his running mate, "lessons and questions" for Springfield, a report on "Kids, Cuts, and Consequences," Governor Mitt Romney's announcement that he will not seek re-election, and pressure on potential Gubernatorial candidate Christy Mihos.

It has been an interesting year, to say the least. I'm looking forward to 2006.

Springfield Prospects

This morning's Boston Globe and The Republican had stories about a meeting held yesterday on Beacon Hill regarding the state of the finances of the City of Springfield, Massachusetts. Attendees included House Speaker Sal DiMasi (D - Boston), Senate President Robert Travaglini (D - Boston), Revenue Commissioner (and Springfield Finance Control Board Chair) Alan LeBovidge, Secretary of Administration and Finance Tom Trimarco, and members of the Springfield area legislative delegation.

While the meeting was closed to the public, participants later said that the financial projections discussed were grim, including a potential $70 million budget deficit by fiscal 2012.

For what may be the first time, state legislative leaders publicly mentioned the possibility of receivership or bankruptcy for Springfield - perhaps providing an answer to a question posed here last week. Speaker DiMasi was quoted as saying

I would say everything is a possibility, anything from receivership to bankruptcy. I will tell you that much ... There are not any easy answers.

Senate President Travaglini indicated that he is not "inclined to support receivership or bankruptcy...(but) we're exploring all of those remedies."

A key date will be January 31, 2006. On this date, Superior Court Judge Constance Sweeney is scheduled to announce the amount of damages to be paid by the City of Springfield following from her decision of a few weeks ago that the withholding of pay from municipal employees begun by former Mayor Michael Albano, but continued under Mayor Charles Ryan and the Finance control Board, is illegal. Depending on the size of the judgment, the remedies discussed at yesterday's Beacon Hill meeting could be set in motion.

Pressure on Mihos

This morning's Boston Globe has a piece about Republican efforts to convince Cape Cod businessman Christy Mihos not to run for Governor of Massachusetts as an Independent in the coming year. According to the story, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey and other Republican operatives - in Boston and Washington - fear that a run by Mihos as an Independent would take votes away from Healey and elect the Democratic nominee as governor. Apparently, Governor Mitt Romney and White House Communications Director Sara Taylor have been pressuring Mihos to run instead against US Senator Ted Kennedy. Mihos has indicated that he is not interested in an essentially futile race against Kennedy and that he is interested in serving as Governor.

To this observer, Lieutenant Governor Healey should not be the only gubernatorial candidate worrying about Mihos. With Mihos' resources and socially liberal but fiscally conservative stands, it is possible that Mihos could come out on top in a three way race, defeating both Healey and either Tom Reilly or Deval Patrick. In fact, it would not be surprising to see the real race being between Mihos and Reilly or Patrick - with Healey clinging to a distant third place. This would be reminiscent of the Minnesota Governor's race of 1998, when third-party candidate Jesse Ventura won election as Governor defeating both the Republican Mayor of St. Paul (and current US Senator) Norm Coleman and Democratic Attorney General Skip Humphrey.

See this update.

Flat Yield Curve

For the first time in five years, the US Treasury Yield Curve - the plotting of yields against maturities - was flat. The two-year Treasury note was at 4.34% this afternoon; the ten-year was at 4.35%. They were briefly both at 4.37% earlier today.

A flat yield curve likely means that the Federal Reserve is done increasing short-term rates for now. In fact, if there are signs of economic weakness, the Fed might start decreasing rates again.

While a flat yield curve is bad news for many sectors of the economy, it is good news for debt issuers - including cities and towns - who will now face even more favorable conditions under which they can refinance outstanding debt.

Initiative Petition on Marriage - Geography

Supporters of an amendment to the Massachusetts Constitution have filed petitions to place on the ballot at November 2008 state election the following amendment to the Massachusetts Constitution.

When recognizing marriages entered into after the adoption of this amendment by the people, the Commonwealth and its political subdivisions shall define marriage only as the union of one man and one woman.

Supporters claim to have submitted about 170,000 signatures in support of this amendment.

Opponents of the measure have fought back, in part, by publishing the names of those signing the petition at two web sites: MassEquality and KnowThyNeighbor. Left in Lowell has identified political figures in Lowell who signed the petition.

It was interesting to see the geographic breakdown of the signatures as well. It would likely surprise no one that only 57 signatures came from Amherst (with a population of nearly 35,000, about 0.16 percent of the population). At the other extreme was my own community of West Brookfield. 198 people from my town signed the petition (with a population of 3,800, that's more than 5.2 percent of the population.)

The following is a not necessarily representative list of cities and towns with their 2000 census populations and the number of signatures received.

Community		Population		Signatures		Percent
Boston		589,141		9,183		1.56%
Brookline		57,107		196		0.34%
Cambridge		101,355		690		0.68%
Charlton		11,263		255		2.26%
Deerfield		4,750		119		2.51%
Framingham		66,910		1,499		2.24%
Leominster		41,303		1,570		3.80%
Orange		7,518		205		2.73%
Pittsfield		45,793		1,256		2.74%
Salem		40,707		1,024		2.52%

With 170,000 claimed signatures, the state total is about 2.67% of the population.

Gay marriage in Massachusetts has been compared to the canary in the cave for a robustly tolerant society. This is the battleground chosen by the likes of James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family. This effort must be defeated if we are to retain an open and tolerant society. Knowledge of the geography of this battle is one key to success.

Oscar Levant

Today would have been the 99th birthday of Oscar Levant: author, piano virtuoso, composer, movie actor, comedian, talk show host, wit, hypochondriac, renaissance man. Levant was unique in 20th century America - perhaps in all of American history - and he is too little remembered today.

For this writer, the strongest image of Levant comes from the movie An American in Paris, in which Levant co-starred with Gene Kelly, playing Kelly's neighbor and friend - a somewhat hard-luck musician. In one fantasy scene, Levant is shown performing George Gershwin's Piano Concerto in F - as soloist, conductor, and all members of the orchestra. Levant was - in "real" life - a friend of Gershwin's and was said to have "owned" the Concerto in F during the 1940s and 1950s.

Levant was a very funny and versatile man who did not achieve as much as he might have because of mental and physical illness. What he did achieve, though, deserves to be remembered in this year leading to his centenary. One can be hopeful that there will be more widespread tributes over the next few years.

Boston Globe on Blogging

This morning's Boston Globe has a piece on the political uses of blogging and other entries into cyberspace.

More on Kids, Cuts, and Consequences

This morning's Republican has a story on the report called Kids, Cuts, and Consequences recently released by the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center and The Home for Little Wanderers. This report details the budget cuts made since fiscal year 2001 in the Massachusetts state budget in programs including education, social services, housing, and health insurance.

In a previous comment, TER felt that while the report made some valuable insights into the impacts of state budget cuts on programs for children, the report also overreached on some points. One of these was the assertion that cuts in teen pregnancy prevention programs contributed to increased births to teen mothers in recent years. In the previous comment, TER said that

it is not clear that there is a causal relationship between the funding reduction in these programs and the rise in teen pregnancies. There could have been many factors that contributed to this increase. The slower economy - and the reduced opportunities - in many of these communities would seem to have been a stronger cause for this change in teen pregnancies.

This morning's story in the Republican covers this issue. Nothing said in that story changes my point of view.

The article quotes Alethia Daughtry, Program Coordinator of Making Proud Choices, a science-based teen pregnancy prevention program for people ages 11 to 13 in Springfield, as saying

I can tell you that when we had money, the teen pregnancy rate declined significantly. In Springfield in the 1990s, the rate went down. But lately, it's on the rise again. In 2003 in Springfield, it was up to 13 percent, or 479 births, which reflects figures only for ages 15 to 19. It doesn't count 13- and 14-year-olds, and we have a significant number of births at these ages as well.

I remain skeptical about any strong direct relationship between the cuts in teen pregnancy prevention programs and increased pregnancies. While such programs may be useful and may contribute to some pregnancy prevention, saying that the budget cuts led to increased pregnancies seems to ignore other more powerful factors. One of these would be the root cause of both the cuts and the pregnancies - a weaker economy.

Teen pregnancy is one of the complicated issues that characterize poverty in this country. It is important to think with clarity and patience on this issue - if there is to be built a more powerful political constituency to address root causes. Simply connecting program reductions with increased incidence will not do this. We need to think comprehensively.

Merry Christmas

To all those who celebrate the holiday!