For the past few months, The Eisenthal Report has been looking periodically at virtual markets. What these markets have in common is that participants invest virtual dollars - like they would in a stock or bond market - to assign values or to make predictions. I have been looking at the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which rates the celebrity value of movies and their directors and stars. I have also been following the prediction markets at Inkling, including Blue Hampshire's New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Market.
Hollywood Stock Exchange
TER has been following the fortunes of five actors on the Hollywood Stock Exchange since October: Parminder Nagra, George Clooney, Halle Berry, Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter), and Rupert Grint (Ron Weasley).
In the past month, three of these actors have gained in value, one has decreased, and one has stayed the same. The gainers were Parminder Nagra, Daniel Radcliffe, and George Clooney. Halle Berry has lost value, while overall actor leader Rupert Grint remains unchanged at $206.85 per share. Parminder Nagra saw a substantial 33 percent gain - from $5.86 to $7.81 per share. I have argued since October that Nagra is something like an undervalued growth stock and that her value is likely to rise dramatically in the coming months and years. This may be seen particularly as her upcoming movie, In Your Dreams, is released. I will have more to say about Parminder Nagra as the release of that movie approaches.
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Market
In February, I characterized the field of candidates in this Inkling prediction market that was created by Blue Hampshire, Blue Mass Group's sister site in New Hampshire, as consisting of three tiers: Favorites, Standbys, and Wannabes. It is still possible to see these three tiers, but the membership and price levels have changed.
At this point, there are four Favorites - all trading above $12.00 per share, but there is a clear leader. Sen. Barack Obama (D - Illinois) has a substantial lead at $33.02 per share. Former Senator John Edwards is in a distant second place at $20.60. Senator Hillary Clinton is an even more distant third at $15.07. Former Vice President Al Gore rounds out the favorites at $12.34 per share.
Last month, there were three Standbys; now there are four. Retired General Wesley Clark has dropped down to this category - now trading at $6.61 per share. Former Senator Mike Gravel has risen into the Standby category at $4.14 per share. The others in this category are New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson ($3.63) and Sen. Joseph Biden (D - Delaware) ($2.65).
The Wannabe category is something of a misnomer at this point. Of the six Wannabes, only two still seek the Democratic Presidential nomination: Sen. Christopher Dodd (D - Connecticut) who trades at $0.67 per share and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D - Ohio) at $0.33. The others are Sen. John Kerry (D - Massachusetts), former Governor Mark Warner, former Governor Tom Vilsack, and Sen. Evan Bayh (D - Indiana).
This market remains one of the most active on Inkling with 363 traders.
Other Inkling Markets
Other Inkling markets include ones for the 2008 Presidential nominations of both parties. As was true a few weeks ago, the Democratic market is somewhat different in its results from the Blue Hampshire market. Sen. Hillary Clinton has retained a substantial lead in this market at $34.99 per share. Sen. Barack Obama is in second place, but has gained since last month with $25.71 per share. John Edwards is in third with $9.49.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain (R - Arizona) still leads at $30.22 per share, but former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has gained ground with $26.48. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains in third place with $18.03 per share. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is in fourth place at $6.19 per share.