Reversal of Fortune in New Hampshire?

For the past year, Inkling Markets has had a prediction market on the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary, which is now less than four weeks away.

The prediction market was created by the editors of Blue Hampshire, New Hampshire's version of Blue Mass. Group. This market functions like a real bond and stock market, except that it uses virtual money. If participants invest more in a given prediction or value, the "price" of that prediction or value gains; if participants invest less, the "price" goes down.

For the past several months, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D - New York) has consistently led the field - sometimes by substantial margins. As recently as this past Friday, Sen. Clinton was at $46.61 per share - implying a 46.61 percent chance of winning the primary - more than $16 per share ahead of her nearest rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D - Illinois).

Now, there has been a big change. Sen. Barack Obama has taken the lead for the first time in many months. He is now at $46.43 per share, while Sen. Clinton has dropped to $35.51 per share. It remains to be seen whether this is a blip - or whether it reflects a real change on the ground in New Hampshire.

Comments

[Sjoemaflop]

Three Cheers! Obama 4 President!

[Ben]

Obama is this country's greatest hope right now. Who better to demonstrate to the world that the Bush years are finally over?

Please, God, protect this man from getting shot by the same group of people who killed King and the Kennedys and put Bush in office.

[McAn]

Obama as president? Lightweight, even if his wife is CFR.

Billary? Just as laughable, if only because the public's memory is so short. How quickly they have forgotten Mena, Whitewater, Chinagate, Vince Foster and Ron Brown, to name just a very few of the Klinton Koverups.

But as she was blessed by the 2006 Bilderbergers conference and has received more Republican funding than any Republican candidate, it must mean she is the current golden calf.