The Eisenthal Report

A Reshaped Presidential Race

The withdrawals of former Senator John Edwards and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani from the Presidential race have changed the dynamics of the races for the Democratic and Republican nominations for President.

Clearly, the Democratic race has become essentially a two person race between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. This coming Tuesday is "Super Tuesday" with 22 states having primaries and caucuses on the Democratic side. If the results on Tuesday are as polls have been recording, Sen. Clinton may well be close to wrapping up the nomination - if not already there - by this time next week. However, some polls are indicating a trend to Sen. Obama in major states. The latest Rasmussen polls in California and Massachusetts both show narrowing Clinton leads over Obama - 43% to 40% in California and 43% to 37% here in Massachusetts. It will be worth watching polls over the next few days to see if these trends continue. (Disclosure: TER has endorsed Sen. Obama for President.)

The Republican contest can be described now as a three person race with a clear frontrunner. Sen. John McCain has established himself as the frontrunner, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are still competitive in the race. At this point, it's anybody's guess how "Super Tuesday" will turn out. The race may even be no closer to resolution at this time next week.

Ten of the 21 states to be contested on the Republican side on Tuesday are still considered to be "toss-ups." These include Illinois, Missouri, Colorado, and Tennessee. Sen. McCain has clear and consistent leads in five states: Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, California, and his home state of Arizona. Two other states - Pennsylvania and Minnesota - had been led by former Mayor Giuliani; it is reasonable to see these states as now being lead by McCain.  Former Governor Huckabee has consistent poll leads in two states: Texas and Georgia. Former Governor Romney also has leads in two states: Massachusetts and Utah.

If Sen. McCain can win a number of the current "toss-up" states - particularly Illinois - he may move toward wrapping up his party's nomination. If not, then we may see a greater possibility of an unresolved nomination heading into the Republican convention - possibly leading to a deadlocked or brokered convention.

Eisenthal Campaign Announcement in Worcester Telegram & Gazette

This morning's Worcester Telegram and Gazette includes an item about my candidacy for Selectman in West Brookfield.

Like many newspapers, the T&G includes in its online edition a space for comments. I have already used this feature to clarify some of the points made in the article. My comment was as follows -

I want to thank Mr. Ellery and the Telegram and Gazette for the time and effort they put into this article.

I do feel the need to clarify some of the representations of my views however.

On the fleet account issue, I believe that the Board of Selectmen and the Advisory Committee deserve credit for coming up with an approach to replacing capital equipment in a regular and orderly way. However, I think that with the approval of a capital planning by-law, such as there as in the Town of Ludlow, this approach could be improved. The by-law would create a capital planning committee that would vet all capital expenditures – much as the Selectmen and Advisory Committee do now. Proposed capital expenditures would then – and only then – go before Town Meeting for approval. I think that the decision to spend $300,000 – for example – on a piece of highway equipment versus a piece of fire equipment is properly a legislative decision – and the legislative body in West Brookfield is the Town Meeting.

To address concerns about a rapid response if a piece of equipment needs to be replaced quickly, I would favor shifting some funds to the Advisory Committee’s reserve account if the capital planning by-law is adopted. To be very clear about this, until a capital planning by-law of the kind I describe is enacted, I would favor maintaining the fleet account.

Regarding the work performance of department heads, I believe that a systematic and professional program of goal setting and performance evaluation could give West Brookfield residents more confidence in their public services. (I’ve never said it should “come under greater scrutiny.”) Goal setting and performance evaluations would improve public confidence by giving the Selectmen and the department heads some additional tools that would help the department heads – and their departments – do as good job as possible for West Brookfield.

Campaign Announcement - Eisenthal for Selectmen

I released the following statement today to local media outlets around West Brookfield.

David M. Eisenthal announces his candidacy for a seat on the West Brookfield Board of Selectmen.

Eisenthal, 46, is seeking the seat to be vacated by outgoing Selectman John Tivnan at the May 6, 2008 town election. “John Tivnan is a public servant who has worked hard and passionately for the ideas that he believes in. I wish him well in his future pursuits,” said Eisenthal. He continued, “I am seeking the seat in the West Brookfield Board of Selectman because I have the experience, the knowledge, and the commitment to be an effective voice for the people of West Brookfield.”

Eisenthal’s professional experience includes nearly 19 years as an advisor to cities, towns, and other local governments on financial matters, including the Town of West Brookfield and the Quaboag Regional School District. In addition to his professional experience, he has held previous elected and appointed positions in local government. He is also the editor and publisher of The Eisenthal Report (theeisenthalreport.com), an Internet weblog that focuses on politics, public policy, and culture. “People may not agree with everything that I say in The Eisenthal Report, but I think they will come away with a sense of the thoughtful way that I approach political and policy issues,” said Eisenthal.

The major issues facing West Brookfield, in Eisenthal’s view, are maintaining the Town’s strong financial profile, managing economic growth, and improving public confidence in Town services. “It’s fair to say that my experience has given me a close familiarity with the workings of Town government. As I’ve spoken with voters around Town, it’s become clear that confidence in public services is the most important issue in this election,” stated Eisenthal.

Eisenthal proposes two measures to improve public confidence: passage of a capital planning bylaw and implementation of professional performance reviews and goal setting for the department heads who report to the Selectmen. Eisenthal holds, “The Town’s department heads are professionals; we should treat them as professionals – fairly and consistently – and set high expectations for their performance as professionals.”

Beyond his specific proposals, Eisenthal hopes to improve confidence by encouraging greater participation in Town government - attending Town Meeting and serving on Town boards. “One cannot find a purer democracy than a Town governed by an open Town Meeting - as West Brookfield is. I want to help our democracy function as well as it possibly can,” continued Eisenthal.

A graduate of Clark University and Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, Eisenthal lives on West Main Street in West Brookfield with his wife, Talya Westbrook, and their sons, Alex and Jack.

Nomination papers for the position are available this week. This announcement was timed to coincide with this step in the election campaign.

The Effect of Obama's Win in South Carolina

Sen. Barack Obama's substantial win in Saturday's South Carolina primary was absolutely essential to his remaining a viable candidate for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Beyond this, it is difficult to tell yet whether this win - along with some key endorsements from Caroline Kennedy and Sen. Ted Kennedy - will shift momentum for Obama in the 22 states holding primaries or caucuses on "Super Tuesday," February 5.

As the most recent polls indicate, Sen. Obama has consistent poll leads in only two "Super Tuesday" states: his home state of Illinois and Georgia. Only one state - Idaho - is considered to be a "toss-up." Most of the rest of the "Super Tuesday"states, including Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and California, show substantial and consistent leads for Sen. Hillary Clinton. It is reasonable to think that if the polls reflect what will happen a week from tomorrow, Sen. Clinton will be close to wrapping up the nomination - if not already there.

The polling results cited above do not yet reflect any "South Carolina" effect. It will bear watching over the coming weekend and into Monday to see if Sen. Obama is able to change the polling picture.

(Disclosure: TER has endorsed Sen. Obama for President.)

Return of the Sun

A few hours ago, something happened in Barrow, Alaska for the first time in several weeks - the Sun rose.

At 1:12 PM Alaska Standard Time (some four and a half hours ago at this writing), the Sun rose on Barrow, which is the northernmost settlement on the North American continent at 71.3 degrees north - well above the Arctic Circle. The Sun last set on Barrow a little before 1:30 PM on November 19.

Daylight did not last long today in Barrow; the Sun set at 2:07 PM AST.

The flip side of the winter darkness is, of course, the summer light - as anyone who has seen Insomnia can attest. In Barrow, the Sun will rise on May 10 at 2:47 AM Alaska Daylight Time - and will not set again until 1:54 AM ADT on August 2.

(Here is the source for the the times and dates.)

MBPC Sizes Up Massachusetts Fiscal 2009 State Budget Gap

The Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center (MBPC) yesterday released an initial assessment of the fiscal conditions facing the Massachusetts state government for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2008.

According to MBPC, the Commonwealth faces a structural budget deficit in excess of $1.1 billion. About $760 million of this is the structural gap to be carried over from the current fiscal year. This gap was comprised of applications of one-time revenue totaling more than $500 million, an overestimate of lottery revenue totalling nearly $125 million, and a forgone deposit to state reserves of more than $100 million.

MBPC estimates that the remainder of the FY09 gap will total over $400 million. Increased expenditures to maintain current services are estimated to total more than $1.1 billion; these increases are projected be offset by more than $750 million in new revenue. The new revenue projections assume a 3.8 percent increase in state revenues - less than recent average increases. However, with the national economy softening, it is reasonable to think that the revenue increase will be smaller than projected - and the budget gap will be larger.

Anniversary of a Strange Case

21 years ago today, one of the most bizarre events in recent American history unfolded in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania - the televised suicide of Pennsylvania state Treasurer R. Budd Dwyer.

Last year, TER offered an extended commentary in advance of the 20th anniversary of this horrific event. As it happens, this commentary is one of the most visited single pieces on this site - thousands of visits to this one piece since last year.

Thompson Out of Presidential Race (Chunk-Chunk)

Former Tennessee Senator - and Law & Order star - Fred Thompson has dropped his bid for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Thompson came in third in the Iowa Caucuses and the South Carolina Primary - and got only one percent of the vote in the New Hampshire Primary. He had started his campaign last summer with high hopes - and poll numbers around 30 percent. His fortunes waned after that.

It is not clear what - if any - effect Thompson's withdrawal will have on the Republican nomination contest as it is shaping up. It is also unclear whether Thompson will endorse another candidate.

Clinton, Romney Win Nevada; McCain Wins South Carolina

Results in today's Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary may have brought one party's nomination contest closer to resolution, but left the other party's contest no closer.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton has won today's Nevada Democratic caucuses. Following her victory in the New Hampshire primary ten days ago, Sen. Clinton seems to be beginning to gather momentum toward the nomination. (Disclosure: TER has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for President.) Sen. Clinton could make additional significant progress toward the nomination if she can follow up today's victory with victories in the 20 states that vote on "Super Tuesday," February 5.

On the Republican side, the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary went as most polls said they would - victories by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in Nevada and Arizona Senator John McCain in South Carolina. As TER noted yesterday, this result leaves the Republican nomination no closer to resolution than it was before. This leaves the "Super Tuesday" contests on February 5 as the next opportunity to move the GOP nomination toward resolution. If multiple candidates are still viable after "Super Tuesday," the prospect of a brokered - or even deadlocked - Republican convention becomes less improbable.

Governor Patrick to File Corporate Tax Legislation

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick announced yesterday that he will file legislation to change the state's tax code as it applies to businesses.

This legislation would close so-called corporate tax loopholes, but also implement a phased reduction in corporate tax rates.

Governor Patrick proposed closing tax loopholes last year as a way of making the tax code fairer and increasing state revenues. These loopholes include

-   corporations shifting income to out-of-state subsidiaries to avoid Massachusetts tax,

-   businesses claiming to be corporations for federal but not Massachusetts tax purposes (the so-called "check the box" loophole),

-   insurance companies paying taxes only on premium income and not on non-insurance revenues,

-   companies avoiding deeds excise by not selling property directly, but rather placing the property with a subsidiary that will be sold,

-   internet retail agents avoiding room occupancy taxes on lodging sold through the Internet,

-   businesses avoiding sales tax on equipment by leasing from a subsidiary rather than purchasing directly, and

-   non-residents taking advantage of the state earned income credit.

This proposal faced major opposition in the legislature, particularly from House Speaker Sal DiMasi. Governor Patrick and the legislative leadership then agreed in April to create a special Corporate Tax Commission. That Commission recently released its report, which endorsed closing some of these loopholes, but also reducing corporate tax rates.

The Governor's legislation would close a number of these loopholes and reduce the corporate tax rate from its current 9.5% beginning in fiscal 2010, with the rate reaching 8.3% for fiscal 2012.

The Governor's proposal does appear to address the fairness of the tax code - closing the loopholes would make the tax code fairer. His proposal also seems to be more politically acceptable than the proposals he made last year. One concern about the legislation is that it might provide temporary fiscal relief for the state government, but constrict the state's resources in the long term. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts faces ongoing fiscal pressures. Unless the reduction in corporate taxes generates a large amount of additional economic activity, the reduced revenues will need to be replaced in some manner - either through increased revenues from some other source or from reduced expenditures.

The question is whether Governor Patrick is potentially setting the stage for further fiscal problems for his second term in office - or for a successor.