Sometimes, in the real world of commerce, markets become "out of whack" with each other; we see this in markets for all kinds of commodities, including bonds, precious metals, and foodstuffs.
We are seeing a major inconsistency among prediction markets on the Inkling platform. The inconsistency is in markets predicting the outcome of the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination and the 2008 Presidential election.
The Democratic nomination market currently has Sen. Barack Obama (D - Illinois) with a wide lead at $61.48 per share - implying a consensus 61.48% probability that Obama will win the nomination. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D - New York) trails at $38.51 per share.
The Presidential election market also has Sen. Obama leading widely - at $60.86 per share. Sen. Clinton is coming in at $12.73 per share. (Sen. John McCain (R - Arizona) is at $26.28 per share.) These numbers imply that Sen. Obama's likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination is 82.70% (60.86/(60.86+12.73)) - far higher than the 61.48% shown in the Democratic nomination market. These markets cannot both be right.
In real-life markets, inconsistencies like these are aberrations - they are corrected with time by market forces. Smart (and lucky) market participants - sometimes known as arbitrageurs - are able to take advantage of these inconsistencies. I have my thoughts about which way these markets will go - since I am a participant in both markets, I will refrain from sharing those thoughts here.