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February 18, 2008

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JP

This does not make sense to me. Why would the relative chances of winning the nomination be the same as winning the election? The electorates are very different. A radical candidate might have a decent chance of winning the nomination, but no chance of winning the election should he or she come through. Romney for instance was seen as much less electable than McCain, even when they were still in a dead heat for the nomination. Just as Obama has seemed more electable in the general election head-to-head polls, even when he was still lagging Clinton in the polls for the nomination. I hope you are sure you did the right reasoning when hedging your bets.

Romaine Butler

Hillary is true winner and she will rise and beat Obama

Romaine Butler

Hillary deserves to be the winner as she is the best candidate and i fear to lose Obama as he might be assassinated

Daniel

What the markets are saying here is that Clinton is not unlikely to win the democratic nomination, but if she does, the Republicans are more likely to win the Presidency. From the numbers above, this is what the markets are pricing for the four possible outcomes:
Obama wins Presidency 61%
Obama loses to McCain 1%
Clinton loses to McCain 26%
Clinton wins Presidency 13%

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