The Eisenthal Report

Vote No on (Massachusetts) Question 1

The Eisenthal Report urges a "no" vote on Question 1, which will appear on ballots statewide in Massachusetts on November 4.

Question 1 would eliminate the state income tax. The effect of this measure would be highly disruptive, at best, and conceivably catastrophic for this state. The state budget of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts gets about 40 percent of its funding - about $12 billion - from the income tax.

The best case scenario if Question 1 passes is that the legislature and Governor will move quickly to gut  or eliminate the new aw. Even in this case, it is likely that state and local services will see disruptions as agency managers plan and act based on the anticipation of much reduced revenues.

More likely is that the law would survive in some form, requiring a drastic combination of service reductions and revenue increase from other sources.

The effects could be dramatic on public education, public safety, infrastructure, and the full array of local services. Massachusetts municipalities had budgeted revenues of nearly $21 billion in fiscal 2008. $5 billion of that amount was state aid. A forty percent reduction of state aid would thus likely translate into a 10 percent reduction in overall local revenues - a recipe for disruptions and reductions in services.

The group, Vote No on Question 1, is actively educating voters about the dangers posed by this question. I urge my readers to get involved.

Note: The Boston Globe today published an editorial urging the defeat of Question 1.

Interesting Possible Wrinkle in Electoral Vote

A few days ago, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com made a very interesting observation about how the Presidential election might unfold in a state that is sure to be carried by Republican nominee John McCain.

Nebraska is one of two states - Maine is the other - that allocate their electoral votes by congressional district. That is, the statewide winner receives two electoral votes, and then the winner in each congressional district receives one vote. (The other forty-eight states, of course, award their electoral votes to the statewide winner on a winner-take-all basis.)

Nebraska has in the past always awarded all five of its electoral votes to the same Presidential candidate - usually the Republican. This year, things might be different. Apparently, according to Silver, Democratic nominee Barack Obama is competitive in Nebraska's Second Congressional District, which is Omaha - Nebraska's largest city - and its suburbs.

An Obama victory in this congressional district could have a decisive effect on this election. According to current state-by-state polling as tracked by Dave Leip, Sen. Obama would receive 264 electoral votes to Sen. McCain's 185 - with 89 tossup votes from six states - Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama were to win Nevada - with its five electoral votes - and McCain were to win the other five states, the candidates would be tied by 269 electoral votes apiece...unless Obama were also to win the single electoral vote represented by Omaha and its suburbs. In this case, Sen. Barack Obama would win the Presidency with the absolute minimum of 270 electoral votes.

Paul Newman (1925 - 2008)

CNN has just announced the death of Paul Newman, one of the greatest American actors of his generation. Newman, who had been reportedly fighting cancer for some time, succumbed to the disease at the age of 83.

It is sometimes difficult to see the historic passing of a generation. The passing of this American icon, however, is a very sad but very important marker of the passing of the generation that came of age in the middle of the last century - a generation sometimes called "the Greatest Generation."

It is fitting that we pause and remember this figure - who embodied - both in his person and his acting persona - the energy and the attitudes of what was best about America in the middle of the 20th century.

First Presidential Debate

If the first Presidential debate, held tonight at the University of Mississippi, changed the dynamic of the Presidential campaign at all, it was to stop the bleeding of the campaign of Republican nominee John McCain.

In the past two weeks, Sen. McCain has gone from strong positions in national and state-by-state polls to clearly weak positions. In all likelihood, Sen. McCain's numbers are likely to stabilize from here. If nothing changes materially between now and Election Day, this means that Sen. McCain will lose a reasonably narrow election in popular and electoral votes - instead of losing in a landslide to Sen. Obama.

The only way in which Sen. McCain could have made up significant ground is if Sen. Obama had made a major gaffe. Sen. Obama did not make any gaffes - he more than held his own, showing himself to be a knowledgeable and confident candidate - presidential, in short. By performing as he did, Sen. Obama did what he needed to do - and all that he reasonably could be expected to do.

Sen. McCain was clearly on the attack, saying a number of times that Sen. Obama "does not understand" this or that point. It is not clear that this line of attack will sway undecided voters in light of Sen. Obama's performance.

It is still almost 40 days to Election Day. Much can happen that would change the dynamic of this campaign - such that Sen. McCain could emerge as a clear favorite to win. The first Presidential debate was not sufficient to do this.

McCain Makes the Wrong Move at the Wrong Time

Sen John S. McCain III (R - Arizona), the Republican nominee for President, announced today that he was suspending his Presidential campaign in order to "focus on the economy" and participate in the congressional debate on the financial bailout package proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

McCain's campaign stated that if the bailout package, which includes $700 billion in government purchases of distressed mortgages, were not authorized by Friday, Sen. McCain might not attend the first Presidential debate, scheduled for Friday at the University of Mississippi.

The most charitable thing that can be said about this move is that it is a well-intentioned, but ill-advised. As the Presidential nominee of one of the major parties in this country, Sen. McCain's job right now should be to present himself and his ideas to the American people. Sen. Barack Obama's comments in this regard were right on the mark -

It's my belief that this is exactly the time when the American people need to hear from the person will be the next president. It is going to be part of the president's job to deal with more than one thing at once. It's more important than ever to present ourselves to the American people.

There are two less charitable interpretations of the Arizona Senator's actions. One is that he is "playing chicken" with the political process, hoping that congressional Democrats will back down from some of their objections and proposed modifications to the Paulson plan in order to maintain the flow of the Presidential election process.

An even less charitable interpretation is that McCain is reading the polls and becoming desperate. This election is moving strongly in Obama's direction - and McCain needs to do something dramatic to stay competitive. (Based on state-by-state polling, Dave Leip has Obama at 269 electoral votes to McCain's 185 (with the rest as "toss-ups"); Electoral-vote.com has Obama at 282 to 256 for McCain; FiveThirtyEight.com has Obama at 309 electoral votes to McCain's 229.)

This would be the first time that a Presidential candidate who is not a sitting President has refused to debate an opponent in over fifty years. McCain and his campaign may also realize that the debates are likely to favor Obama, unless the Illinois Senator commits a major error - on the order of President Ford asserting in 1976 that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. The visuals and the substance of the upcoming debates - barring a gaffe - are likely to advantage Obama. Obama - the man and his ideas - is likely to look quite fresh and vigorous next to his venerable opponent.  For this reason, McCain may be looking for ways to avoid debating Obama at all.

Hopefully, sufficient pressure can be brought on Sen. McCain to debate this Friday as well as on October 7 and October 15.

Random Thoughts

1. This post is an experiment - my first from my mobile phone - we'll see how this works. 2. The state-by-state presidential polls have been all over the place. A week ago, Barack Obama had a lead of 57 electoral votes with 67 tossup votes. A few days ago, John McCain had taken a lead of as much as 25 electoral votes. Now, that lead is 10 electoral votes in McCain's favor with 96 tossup votes. What is also interesting is that McCain's lead has narrowed significantly in Nevada, Missouri, and Indiana. If Obama were to get the 216 he has now solidly plus the 96 tossups plus Nevada, Missouri, and Indiana, he would have nearly 340 electoral votes - a substantial victory. While it's still likely that the electoral college will be close, one can see the makings of a comfortable electoral college victory for either candidate - though more likely for Obama. 3. Even though momentum seems to be moving Obama's way again, there's still a lot of action ahead. I still worry that "Obama" is the Luo word for "Dukakis." 4. We had a primary here in Massachusetts yesterday - with very low turnout - including here in West Brookfield. Just how low was the turnout? Fewer people voted yesterday in West Brookfield - Democrat and Republican - than voted for me at the Town election in May.

Intriguing Post-Election Possibilities

It seems obvious to all observers that the U.S. Presidential election could be very close.

Current state-by-state polling numbers indicate 264 electoral votes for Sen. Barack Obama, 207 electoral votes for Sen. John McCain, and 67 electoral votes in six states considered to be "tossups" - Colorado, Florida, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio.

One intriguing possibility hinted by recent polls is that Sen. McCain could win the popular vote for President, but lose the Electoral College - and the Presidency - to Sen. Obama.

Another possibility is that if Obama wins all of the states where he currently leads plus Nevada and McCain wins the states where he currently leads plus the other five tossups, the candidates will be tied at 269 electoral votes apiece.

Under the Constitution, the next step would be that the election would go to the House of Representatives. Each state would get one vote in this balloting. If the House were to vote along partisan lines, Sen. Obama would receive 27 votes to Sen McCain's 21. (The House delegations of Arizona and Kansas are split evenly.) However, if House members voted according to how their state voted, McCain would have 28 votes to Obama's 22. Either way, the next President would join Thomas Jefferson and John Quincy Adams as the only Presidents ever elected by the House of Representatives.

Another even more intriguing possibility is what would happen with the Vice Presidency. If Sen. Biden and Gov. Palin were tied in the Electoral College, then the Senate would choose the Vice President - one vote per Senator. Currently, there are 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. The two Independents are Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. It's likely that Sanders would vote for Biden and Lieberman would vote for Palin. The Senate would split 50 to 50 with a party line vote plus these votes from Sanders and Lieberman. However, Lieberman could decide differently - and with that decision decide that Sen. Biden would be the Vice President. Of course, the Senate could decide differently- and make Governor Sarah Palin the next Vice President of the United States.

Thus, we could see a scenario where Sen. John McCain becomes President and Sen. Joseph Biden becomes Vice President - or the reverse could happen - President Obama and Vice President Palin. Ah, the fun of our Consitutional system...

Comparative Democracy

When the 44th President of the United States takes office this coming January, one of his first meetings with a foreign leader is likely to be with the Prime Minister of Canada; it is possible that the Prime Minister with whom President Obama or President McCain meets will not be the current officeholder, Stephen Harper.

Prime Minister Harper has called a quick and unexpected general election to be held on Tuesday, October 14 - three weeks before the U.S. Presidential election.

I have commented previously on the difference between our approach to national elections, which seem virtually endless, and the approaches of other western democracies - which call elections and have them done pretty quickly. In particular, I commented on Australia's six week national campaign of about a year ago - one which saw a change in Prime Ministers - and contrasted this with our elections, which were still a year in the future.

Now, we may see a more dramatic demonstration of this contrast as either President Obama or President McCain meets with either Prime Minister Harper or Prime Minister (Stephane) Dion early next year.

Of course, we're comparing our Presidential system with the parliamentary systems of Australia and Canada. The parliamentary systems have well-established and well-functioning party mechanisms - perhaps so well-established and well-functioning that they do not allow as much innovation and responsiveness as our system allows.

On the other hand, not only are our allies not in constant campaign mode, but there usually are fewer concerns expressed about the experience of the party leaders who will be running a government if their party wins.

Presidential Prognostication

In looking at state-by-state polling data - the only polling data that matter in a Presidential election - I continue to confirm a belief that is weeks, if not months, old - that this is Sen. Barack Obama's election to lose.

In looking at Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections, one sees that up to the last few days -that is, before the Republican Convention had any effect, Sen. Obama held clear leads in states with a total of 259 electoral votes. That is only 11 votes short of the 270 needed for election. Sen. John McCain holds leads in states with a total of 191 electoral votes. The remaining states with a total of 88 electoral votes are considered to be "tossups." These include Virginia, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Colorado. In order to win the election, Sen. McCain needs almost to run the table and win almost every "tossup" state.

Sen. McCain has come back from political oblivion before, but he faces his tallest challenge yet. It's my guess at this point that, come January, the Marine Band will be boning up on "My Kind of Town...Chicago is..."