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October 29, 2008

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Michael Rubinstein

I don't think McCain has even a sliver of hope. Each website has a different breakdown of the state-by-state totals, but everyone I've seen shows Obama with an overwhelming electoral advantage. To win, all Obama has to do is to capture all of the states that he has already locked up (with leads of 10 percent or more) and just two or three of his leaning states or toss up states. By contrast, even if McCain won ALL the states where he is ahead plus ALL the toss up states, he still isn't close to victory. He would also have to win most of the states that are currently leaning Obama. This simply isn't possible with less than one week to go.

David Eisenthal

Michael,

With each passing hour, I agree more and more that McCain has not even a sliver of hope.

However, my point was that the electoral dynamic has changed in the past twenty years. In 1988, George H. W. Bush was able to turn a seven point margin in the national popular vote into a more than 300 vote margin in the Electoral College. With a similar popular vote margin now, Barack Obama should expect an Electoral College margin of less than 200 votes. Even if Obama wins the popular vote on Tuesday by ten points, his Electoral College margin will almost certainly max out at about 250 votes. On the other hand, if Obama's popular margin narrowed to two percent, McCain would be likely in a position to win Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. This would at least put McCain back in the game - but I think such a narrowing is very unlikely at this late stage.

Michael Rubinstein

Don't care about the electoral college margin. I just care that he loses. : )

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