The Eisenthal Report

75,000,000

This is the amount of popular votes I believe Barack Obama will receive - within 500,000 - after all votes are cast. What do you think?

2008 - Not Your Father's Election

The fact that the 2008 Presidential election looks like no other Presidential election in United States history is almost a commonplace.

Next Tuesday, the United States is likely to elect its first African-American President - and its first Roman Catholic Vice President. If this happens, it will be based in large part of unprecedented participation by people of color and young people. Even if the McCain-Palin ticket wins - and this would be the biggest Presidential election upset since 1948 - there will be history made.

The simple fact is that - based on the polling numbers nationally and state-by-state - this Presidential election looks like no other. This reflects the current economic crisis, but also more fundamental changes in this country's politics.

The recent election that might be most similar to this year in popular vote totals, based on national tracking polls, might be 1988, when George H.W. Bush received 53 percent of the popular vote to Michael Dukakis' 46 percent. While the Obama-McCain race might also have a 53-46 margin, the votes will be distributed very differently from state to state as compared to 1988. (See Dave Leip's Atlas.)

In 1988, 21 states - with 271 electoral votes (one more than needed for election) - were decided by less than a ten percent margin. These included California (51%-48% for Bush), New York (52%-48% for Dukakis), Illinois (51%-49% for Bush), and Massachusetts (53%-45% for Dukakis). The implication here is that if the national popular vote margin had been closer than 7 percent, Dukakis' electoral vote totals would have been substantially higher than the 111 electoral votes that he received.

This year, based on the latest state-by-state polls, there are 15 states that look to have less than a 10 percent margin. These states collectively have 159 electoral votes. This means that 379 electoral votes could be decided in relatively lopsided state contests. Of the lopsided contests, Obama is leading in states with 247 electoral votes and McCain is leading in states with 132 electoral votes. These include California, where Obama is leading by more than 20 percent, and New York, where Obama is leading by more than 30 percent.

What this shows is a far more geographically polarized electorate now than 20 years ago. The liberal parts of this country are more liberal and the conservative parts are more conservative - with some exceptions. Parts of the Mountain West and the South are more competitive in Presidential elections.

It is this geographic polarization that gives John McCain a sliver of hope on Tuesday. Even if Barack Obama runs up his popular vote percentage to 53 or 55 percent of the total, McCain will still win an almost guaranteed 150 electoral votes. Close contests in key states could push McCain within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Were voting patterns more like 1988, a popular vote percentage of 53 percent for Obama would guarantee a substantial victory in the electoral college - like George H.W. Bush's 426 electoral votes to Michael Dukakis' 111. At this point, even if Barack Obama wins 55 percent of popular vote (something that no one has done since Ronald Reagan), he is very unlikely to win more than 390 electoral votes. Something narrower than a 53-47 popular vote margin nationally could make the electoral college contest more interesting than this observer would like to see.

A Curious Deployment of Campaign Resources

This morning, I saw one reason why the Presidential campaign of Republican nominee John McCain may be headed for a spectacular defeat.

I was getting on the Massachusetts Turnpike (I-90) at Exit 7 in Ludlow. For those of you not intimately familiar with Massachusetts geography, Ludlow is in western Massachusetts next to Springfield - about 50 miles east of the New York state line and 80 miles west of Boston.

At Exit 7, on the four corners surrounding the interchange, I saw perhaps a dozen McCain-Palin volunteers holding signs. Now, the next battleground state going west on I-90 from Ludlow is Ohio - some 500 miles to the west. Going east, there is the battleground state of New Hampshire, but I'm not sure how many Granite Staters we would find in Ludlow on a Saturday morning. Apart from New Hampshire, all there is going east from Ludlow is pure blue - up to and including the sea.

This seemed to me to be a pretty blatant misapplication of campaign resources ten days before the election. (They couldn't have gotten into a minivan and gone to New Hampshire?)

If we see a substantial Obama victory - or even a landslide - on November 4, this kind of mistake may be one of the reasons.

McCain's Hubris

The campaign of Republican Presidential nominee John McCain has seized on remarks that Joseph Biden, the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, made last week. At a Seattle fundraiser, Biden said that "it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama...we're going to have an international crisis to test the mettle of this guy." The McCain campaign has been running an ad attempting to show that these remarks highlight Obama's foreign policy inexperience. For this observer, the McCain campaign's claim demonstrates a frightening hubris. The next President - whether it is Obama or McCain - will be tested by multiple crises. To think that that the mercurial McCain, who will turn 73 next August, will be a steadier hand in the crises of the next four years is highly questionable at best. Barack Obama (endorsed by TER) has shown himself to be a calm presence, even in the cauldron of three debates with McCain. This observer is far more comfortable with the steadiness and intelligence of Barack Obama at the helm during the coming crises, domestic and foreign, than the uncertain temperament and health of John McCain.

Has McCain Conceded the Presidency?

Electoral-vote.com observed today that Republican Presidential nominee John McCain and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin have been traveling to states like Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire - states that the Republican ticket is very unlikely to win at this point -and not traveling to Nevada and North Carolina - states that are within reach for the Republicans, but in danger of going to Obama.

It seems to this observer that two things are going on with the McCain-Palin campaign. First, the Republican ticket has all but conceded the Presidency to Barack Obama. The ticket is treading water - standing by in the hope that Obama makes a fatal stumble at this late stage. Second, having essentially conceded the White House to Obama and Biden, the GOP wants to limit as much as possible Obama's ability to govern effectively. They are trying to do this by limiting Obama's margin in the popular vote. This would explain the continued negative attacks - wherever they are made. McCain and Palin may also focused on limiting the damage to Republicans in down-ticket races. Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have vigorously contested U.S. Senate contests for seats currently held by Republicans. In Minnesota and New Hampshire, particularly, the Democrats have good chances of winning the Senate seats. McCain and Palin, then would seem to be acting partly on behalf of Senators like Norm Coleman and John Sununu as they try to stem what appears to be a Democratic tide.

Just How Old is John McCain?

A couple of years ago, when Gerald Ford became the longest-living former President, The Eisenthal Report tried to put President Ford's longevity into perspective. TER noted that if Abraham Lincoln lived as long as Ford, he would have lived into the 20th century, and if Theodore Roosevelt had lived as long as Ford, he would have been around for the Korean War.

One can perform a similar exercise for the current Republican nominee for President, Arizona Senator John McCain, who at age 72 would be the oldest person ever elected to the office. Thomas Dewey, the Republican nominee for President in 1944 and 1948 achieved and - unfortunately - died young. He was only 68 when he died in 1971. Thus, Dewey would have reached McCain's current age in 1974. It is actually not a terribly absurd thought that a living and healthy Dewey might have become President at that point. Perhaps Richard Nixon might have selected Dewey as his Vice President when Spiro Agnew resigned in 1973 - and in this fanciful scenario, Dewey would have become President in 1974 when Nixon himself resigned.

Lyndon Johnson, the 36th President of the United States, also died young - at 64 in 1973. He would have reached McCain's current age in 1980. Of course, the nation did elect a senior citizen that year - Ronald Reagan at the age of 69.

John F. Kennedy would have reached McCain's current age in 1989 - an illustration if any is needed of what this country lost with Kennedy's murder.

The point of this is that we, as Americans, should be pleased that someone of McCain's experience is available to be a potential President - even if we do not choose - as I will not - to put him to work as President.

A Random Thought on Stock Markets and Elections

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average having dipped below 8,000 today (a little before 2:00 PM EDT), a question occurs to me.

What if the 1929 stock market crash had happened one year earlier - in October 1928? Would we have had President Alfred Smith instead of President Herbert Hoover?

Second Presidential Debate

Tonight's Presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee, had great importance for both Sen. Barack Obama (endorsed by TER) and Sen. John McCain, but more was at stake for Sen. McCain, who has been falling steadily behind Sen. Obama in national and state-by-state polls over the past few weeks.

While McCain scored some points, this was far from the victory that he needed. He will not have many more opportunities to make up the ground that he did not tonight.

If there is a major change in campaign dynamic, it likely will not come from the remaining debate - or from the candidates themselves. Such a change, if it is to come, will much more likely come from an external event. It could be argued that the dynamic changing event has already happened - the global financial meltdown.

Looking at debates historically, those debates that did have a significant effect are now increasingly distantly in the past. One can think of the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debates, the 1976 Ford-Carter debates, and the 1980 Carter-Reagan debates as having changed the direction of those elections. Part of the reason we have not seen such trajectory-changing debates recently is the advent of the 24-hour news cycle and the role of the Internet. Voters have a greater and more constant volume of information available - it's harder for any particular debate or campaign event to have the kind of important effect that the 1960, 1976, and 1980 debates had.

It is thus perhaps unreasonable to expect much change from the remaining debate, which will be held a week from tomorrow at Hofstra University.

Obama!

In December 2007, The Eisenthal Report endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States. TER reiterates that endorsement - emphatically.

During this campaign, Sen. Obama has continued to demonstrate those qualities of leadership, intellect, and eloquence that were so attractive in December 2007. As TER pointed out,

The late Harvard professor – and Presidential advisor – Richard Neustadt wrote that “the power of the Presidency is the power to persuade.” Obama possesses persuasive powers to a greater degree than any other candidate in either party.

Sen. Obama has demonstrated those persuasive powers beyond this observer's wildest expectations.

Beyond these qualities, Sen. Obama has demonstrated the judgment and temperament that we should want in a President. His selection of Delaware Senator Joseph Biden as his running mate is the most important demonstration of Presidential judgment so far. Obama has also demonstrated a thoughtfulness and a cool under pressure that remind this observer of John F. Kennedy. We can hope that a President Obama will not be tested in the way that President Kennedy was tested in the Cuban Missile Crisis, but we can feel comfortable that the response would be similar.

The contrast between Sen. Obama and his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, is striking. While McCain's maverick toughness may be admirable in many ways, it does not seem as well suited for executive leadership as it does for service in the United States Senate. One can also question whether the mercurial and impulsive tendencies that McCain has demonstrated are what we want to see in a President. Those tendencies were demonstrated most spectacularly, in this observer's view, by McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin - someone utterly unsuited for the Presidency - as his running mate.

Sen. McCain has been touting his experience as superior to that of Sen. Obama. While experience is not unimportant, it should not be overrated either. Some of our worst Presidents - Buchanan and Hoover, for example - were highly experienced public servants.

Judgment and temperament are far more important qualities in a President - in these, Sen. Obama clearly outshines Sen. McCain.

November 4 fast approaches. The Eisenthal Report urges a vote for the Obama-Biden ticket for President and Vice President.

Vice Presidential Debate - No Change in Campaign Dynamic

Tonight's Vice Presidential debate between the Republican nominee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, and the Democratic nominee, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, offered much spirit and drama, but did not change the dynamic of the Presidential campaign 33 days before Election Day.

Governor Palin offered spirit and spunk, if not much in the way of substance; she exceeded expectations in that she held her own against the veteran debater, Biden.

Biden, for his part, avoided gaffes, and provided a substantive and emotionally connected presentation of his views. His most powerful moment was when he teared up while talking about his sons, who had been seriously injured in the automobile accident that killed his wife and daughter.

The net effect of this debate was a win for the Obama-Biden ticket. Nothing changed the campaign's current trajectory toward an Obama-Biden win on November 4.