The Eisenthal Report

Martin Luther King, Jr.

On this terrible anniversary - the fortieth anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., I can do no better than to point back to a TER piece from about fifteen months ago - on the occasion of the Martin Luther King holiday in 2007.

In that piece, I wrote that

As a society, we are still sorting out his legacy - and his work is far from finished. However, if we survive as a coherent society in the coming decades and centuries - if we avoid the fate of other ethnically diverse societies such as Northern Ireland, Yugoslavia, and Rwanda - it will be in no small measure because of the work and the example of Dr. King.

Arthur C. Clarke (1917 - 2008)

Arthur C. Clarke, one of the great science fiction writers of all time, died this afternoon (U.S. time) at his home in Sri Lanka; he was 90.

His most famous work was the novel and film, 2001: A Space Odyssey, but he was known also as a futurist, who was credited with the idea of geosynchronous satellites, among many other ideas.

Daylight Savings Blues

In the wee hours of this morning, most of the United States moved to Daylight Savings Time (DST).

For a number of years, DST began the first Sunday in April. This year, Congress approved an earlier start date for DST - the second Sunday in March. The rationale for this was that the extended daylight in the early evening would reduce energy costs and improve automobile safety.

For a majority of Americans, the change will likely have precisely that effect. Morning commutes and other routines will not be greatly affected, but evening commutes and routines will be enhanced by the extended daylight hours.

However, for a portion of the country, the change may not have a completely positive net effect on energy and safety. Those are the parts of the country that are located in the eastern portions of their time zones.

Time zones were originally created in the nineteenth century to provide some uniformity to railroad schedules. They were grounded in the system of longitude based at Greenwich, England. As there are 360 degrees of longitude in total, and 24 hours in the day, each time zone would encompass about 15 degrees of longitude. The time zones would be centered - roughly - on the longitudes evenly divisible by 15; in the United States, these "center meridians" would be 75, 90, 105, and 120 degrees west of Greenwich.

As time zones actually evolved in the United States, and population grew, the effective centers of the time zones moved west. Only 11 states - with less than 20 percent of the nation's population - are either mostly or entirely east of the "center meridians": the six states of New England, New Jersey, Illinois, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Nevada. In these places, the sun rises and sets earlier than in the rest of their time zones.

The effect of the earlier switch to DST in these states is that the early morning, which had been seeing daylight, will go dark again for another month. In Boston, the sun rose yesterday, at 6:08 AM EST. Today, it rose at 7:06 AM EDT. In Chicago, the sun rose yesterday at 6:14 AM CST. Today, it rose at 7:12 AM CDT.

In metropolitan areas like Boston and Chicago, there are many people who rise early and arrive home late. The later sunrise might actually mean increased energy use for such people. It will be interesting to see the effect on energy usage in such places.

Virtual Markets - March

TER now takes its monthly look at virtual markets. These are markets found on the Internet in which participants invest virtual money - no real cash - to make predictions or to assign value. These markets function like real stock and bond markets. If participants invest more in a given prediction or value, the "price" of that prediction or value gains; if participants invest less, the "price" goes down.

TER has been following the Hollywood Stock Exchange and some of the prediction markets at Inkling. (Disclosure: I do not participate in HSX, but I do participate in the Inkling markets discussed below except for markets that I administer - and I do not currently administer any markets.)

Hollywood Stock Exchange

TER has been following six actors on the Hollywood Stock Exchange: George Clooney, Halle Berry, Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, Emma Watson, and Gary Oldman.

Gary Oldman - Sirius Black in the Harry Potter films, among many other roles - has taken first place overall from Emma Watson - Hermione Granger in the Harry Potter films. Oldman rose from $220.81 to $225.22 per share, while Watson decreased from $221.85 to $216.81 per share. Daniel Radcliffe - Harry Potter - retains third place among actors at $195.47 (a slight decrease from the previous month), but fell to fifth place overall behind directors George Lucas and Andrew Adamson. Rupert Grint - Ron Weasley in the Harry Potter films - remains in fourth place among actors and sixth place overall at $172.83 per share.

George Clooney again gained, moving from $50.57 to $53.61 per share. Halle Berry also gained, going from $91.44 to $97.44 per share.

Inkling Markets

Much has changed in the Presidential race in the past month. Sen. John McCain (R - Arizona) has clinched the Republican nomination. In early December, Sen. McCain's chances were valued by the Republican nomination market at $2.86 per share - a 2.86 percent chance of success. Someone buying 100 shares in early December for $286 cashed out at $10,000 (virtual money, of course).

We're still in a major contest on the Democratic side between Sen. Hillary Clinton (D - New York) and Sen. Barack Obama (D - Illinois). What has become curious in the prediction markets has been the disconnect between different markets regarding the probability that one or the other will gain the nomination. I first noted this disconnect in a piece almost three weeks ago.

The market for the Democratic nomination itself currently shows Sen. Obama at $65.37 per share and Sen. Clinton at $34.62 per share - about 2 to 1 odds in favor of the Illinois Senator. The Presidential Election market, however, is much more bullish on Sen. Obama, showing him at $51.09 per share, or slightly better than 50-50 odds of winning the Presidency. Sen. Clinton is at $12.39 per share. These prices imply that Sen. Obama has an 80 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination (51.09/(51.09+12.39)) - 4 to 1 odds in favor of Sen. Obama winning the nomination. The real odds cannot both be 2 to 1 and 4 to 1.

In the real world, a difference like this between real markets would be a major arbitrage opportunity - those who guess right would stand to make significant profits while those who didn't would face big losses. We'll see in the coming weeks how this sorts itself out.

Some new markets include whether Florida and Michigan will have new primaries, who will be on the Democratic Presidential ticket (President and Vice President), and will any Democratic Presidential candidate have the needed 2,025 delegate votes needed for nomination by August 1.

Other markets offered by Inkling include which teams will win Major League Baseball's American League East, American League Central, and the World Series, and who will win the United States Senate race in Minnesota this year. In the latter race, comedian Al Franken continues to be favored to win over incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. Franken has risen to $36.69 per share, while Coleman is at $20.45 per share.

TER now takes its monthly look at virtual markets. These are markets found on the Internet in which participants invest virtual money - no real cash - to make predictions or to assign value. These markets function like real stock and bond markets. If participants invest more in a given prediction or value, the "price" of that prediction or value gains; if participants invest less, the "price" goes down.

TER has been following the Hollywood Stock Exchange and some of the prediction markets at Inkling. (Disclosure: I do not participate in HSX, but I do participate in the Inkling markets discussed below except for markets that I administer - and I do not currently administer any markets.)

Hollywood Stock Exchange

TER has been following six actors on the Hollywood Stock Exchange: George Clooney, Halle Berry, Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, Emma Watson, and Gary Oldman.

Gary Oldman - Sirius Black in the Harry Potter films, among many other roles - has taken first place overall from Emma Watson - Hermione Granger in the Harry Potter films. Oldman rose from $220.81 to $225.22 per share, while Watson decreased from $221.85 to $216.81 per share. Daniel Radcliffe - Harry Potter - retains third place among actors at $195.47 (a slight decrease from the previous month), but fell to fifth place overall behind directors George Lucas and Andrew Adamson. Rupert Grint - Ron Weasley in the Harry Potter films - remains in fourth place among actors and sixth place overall at $172.83 per share.

George Clooney again gained, moving from $50.57 to $53.61 per share. Halle Berry also gained, going from $91.44 to $97.44 per share.

Inkling Markets

Much has changed in the Presidential race in the past month. Sen. John McCain (R - Arizona) has clinched the Republican nomination. In early December, Sen. McCain's chances were valued by the Republican nomination market at $2.86 per share - a 2.86 percent chance of success. Someone buying 100 shares in early December for $286 cashed out at $10,000 (virtual money, of course).

We're still in a major contest on the Democratic side between Sen. Hillary Clinton (D - New York) and Sen. Barack Obama (D - Illinois). What has become curious in the prediction markets has been the disconnect between different markets regarding the probability that one or the other will gain the nomination. I first noted this disconnect in a piece almost three weeks ago.

The market for the Democratic nomination itself currently shows Sen. Obama at $65.37 per share and Sen. Clinton at $34.62 per share - about 2 to 1 odds in favor of the Illinois Senator. The Presidential Election market, however, is much more bullish on Sen. Obama, showing him at $51.09 per share, or slightly better than 50-50 odds of winning the Presidency. Sen. Clinton is at $12.39 per share. These prices imply that Sen. Obama has an 80 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination (51.09/(51.09+12.39)) - 4 to 1 odds in favor of Sen. Obama winning the nomination. The real odds cannot both be 2 to 1 and 4 to 1.

In the real world, a difference like this between real markets would be a major arbitrage opportunity - those who guess right would stand to make significant profits while those who didn't would face big losses. We'll see in the coming weeks how this sorts itself out.

Some new markets include whether Florida and Michigan will have new primaries, who will be on the Democratic Presidential ticket (President and Vice President), and will any Democratic Presidential candidate have the needed 2,025 delegate votes needed for nomination by August 1.

Other markets offered by Inkling include which teams will win Major League Baseball's American League East, American League Central, and the World Series, and who will win the United States Senate race in Minnesota this year. In the latter race, comedian Al Franken continues to be favored to win over incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. Franken has risen to $36.69 per share, while Coleman is at $20.45 per share.

The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Tomorrow will be the 75th anniversary of the inauguration of Franklin Delano Roosevelt as the 32nd President of the United States.

Roosevelt had been elected the previous November in a landslide over the incumbent President, Herbert Hoover, winning 42 of the 48 states. The nation was facing an unprecedented economic collapse. On Inauguration Day, March 4, 1933, the new President's first task was to reassure a frightened nation. The speech that President Roosevelt gave that day went far in accomplishing that.

Life Imitating Art? The 2008 Presidential Campaign and "The West Wing"

As of this writing, it looks increasingly likely that the November election campaign for President of the United States will be waged between Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona and Democratic Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

I'm wondering if anyone, particularly fans of the late great NBC series "The West Wing," has noticed that we may be seeing a bit of life imitating art. Over most of its seven season run, the series focused on the administration of (fictional) President Josiah Bartlet, who was played by Martin Sheen. During its last two seasons, however, the series shifted focus to the election of President Bartlet's successor. The two main contenders to succeed President Bartlet in the end were Republican Senator Arnold Vinick of California, played by Alan Alda, and Democratic Congressman Matthew Santos of Texas, played by Jimmy Smits.

Senator Vinick was an aging, socially moderate, but fiscally conservative Republican, who had trouble with the hard-core right-wing base of his party. Congressman Santos was initially a little-known Democrat of Mexican-American heritage, whose Presidential chances were dismissed by the conventional wisdom, but who emerged through a combination of luck, eloquence, and charisma.

In the actual 2008 presidential campaign, we have the Republican, Senator McCain, who is an aging, somewhat socially moderate, fiscally conservative Republican, who has trouble with the hard-core right-wing of his party. We also have the Democrat, Senator Obama, who not so long ago was a little-known figure of African-American heritage, whose Presidential chances were dismissed by the conventional wisdom, and who seems to be emerging through a combination of luck, eloquence, and charisma.

It's worth noting that, in the end, Congressman Santos became President Santos, defeating Senator Vinick by a margin of 272 to 266 in the Electoral College (after winning the State of Nevada by a small margin.)

Perhaps we will see a similar result in a contest between Senator Obama and Senator McCain.

Lincoln Bicentennial Celebration Begins

Official observance of Abraham Lincoln's bicentennial year begins today with events in Kentucky, where America's 16th President was born. The Lincoln Bicentennial Commission has planned many events over the next year, leading up to the 200th anniversary of Lincoln's birth on February 12, 2009.

As TER has noted previously, the February 2009 bicentennial events will likely be the first major post-inaugural public events for the next President of the United States. 99 years ago, the celebration of the Lincoln Centennial was one of the last events of the Presidency of Theodore Roosevelt. (Presidential inaugurations were in March until the 1930s.)

In 1909, the main celebration of the Lincoln Centennial occurred in Springfield, Illinois. There was a gala event there that included a speech by William Jennings Bryan, who had recently concluded his third campaign for the Presidency. It is not surprising given the climate of the first decade of the 20th century, but African-Americans were excluded from the main gala event - even though a letter from Booker T. Washington was read to the assembled crowd. In 2009, it's quite possible that an African-American President will be presiding over the Lincoln Bicentennial events.

In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick has announced the formation of a state Lincoln Bicentennial Commission. The Chair and Co-Chair of this Commission are distinguished scholars who are also Massachusetts residents - Doris Kearns Goodwin and David Donald. Both Goodwin and Donald are renowned for their Lincoln biographies, among many other works.

Virtual Markets - February

TER now takes its monthly look at virtual markets. These are markets found on the Internet in which participants invest virtual money - no real cash - to make predictions or to assign value. These markets function like real stock and bond markets. If participants invest more in a given prediction or value, the "price" of that prediction or value gains; if participants invest less, the "price" goes down.

TER has been following the Hollywood Stock Exchange and some of the prediction markets at Inkling.(Disclosure: I do not participate in HSX, but I do participate in the Inkling markets discussed below except for markets that I administer - and I do not currently administer any markets.)

Hollywood Stock Exchange

TER has been following six actors on the Hollywood Stock Exchange: George Clooney, Halle Berry, Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, Emma Watson, and Gary Oldman.

At this point, Emma Watson - Hermione Granger in the Harry Potter films - holds first place overall as she did last month, although her price declined slightly from $223.11 to $221.85 per share. Gary Oldman - Sirius Black in the Harry Potter films, among many other roles - retains second place overall at $220.81 per share. Daniel Radcliffe - Harry Potter - retains third place among actors at $197.99, but fell to fourth place overall behind George Lucas. Rupert Grint - Ron Weasley in the Harry Potter films - remains in fourth place among actors and sixth place overall (behind director Andrew Adamson) at $178.50 per share.

George Clooney again gained, moving from $47.53 to $50.57 per share. Halle Berry also gained, going from $86.44 to $91.44 per share.

Inkling Markets

On this Friday before "Super Tuesday," we see prediction markets on the nomination and election of the President of the United States in very different places from previous months.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain has become the strong favorite at $85.49 per share - implying a consensus 85.49% probability of McCain winning the nomination. Only two months ago, Sen. McCain was in sixth place at $2.86 per share. Someone buying 100 shares of McCain two months ago for $286 would now see those shares valued at $8,549. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in a distant second place at $12.53 per share.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton has gained a commanding lead at $70.54 per share - more than double the share price last month. Sen. Barack Obama is in second place at $29.39 per share.

In the Presidential Election market, Sen. McCain, Sen. Clinton, and Sen. Obama are nearly equal at $32.79, $32.66, and $31.02 per share, respectively. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in a very distant fourth place at $1.61 per share.

Other markets that TER is following include ones tracking the states that the Democratic Presidential candidate is likely to win in November, which teams will win Major League Baseball's American League East, American League Central, and the World Series, and who will win the United States Senate race in Minnesota this year. In the latter race, comedian Al Franken continues to be favored to win over incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. Franken has risen to $34.34 per share, while Coleman is at $13.62 per share.

Anniversary of a Strange Case

21 years ago today, one of the most bizarre events in recent American history unfolded in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania - the televised suicide of Pennsylvania state Treasurer R. Budd Dwyer.

Last year, TER offered an extended commentary in advance of the 20th anniversary of this horrific event. As it happens, this commentary is one of the most visited single pieces on this site - thousands of visits to this one piece since last year.

Plans for FDR Museum in Chicopee Fall Through

The Republican (Springfield) reports this morning that plans to reopen a Franklin Delano Roosevelt museum in Chicopee, Massachusetts have apparently fallen through.

Joseph Plaud, the founder and director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt American Heritage Museum, had announced in May 2007 his plans to reopen the museum in the former public library in Chicopee. The museum originally opened in Worcester's Union Station in the summer of 2004, but needed to relocate after its lease was terminated in the spring of 2007. Plaud and Chicopee city officials had announced plans to open an FDR public policy institute at Elms College, along with the reopened museum. Now, plans for both the museum and the institute are been abandoned.

According to the Republican, Plaud plans to sell the museum's collection of FDR memorabilia - reportedly consisting of 10,000 items - to meet financial obligations.

Disappointment in this news went beyond officials of the City of Chicopee and Elms College.